A hundred days of blood, a hundred days of blur. While the Ukraine invaded on February 24 by Moscow does not see the outcome of this bloody confrontation, a question is becoming ever more weighty: by delivering ever more arms to kyiv, are Europeans and Americans actually already crossing the directly with the Kremlin in a war that no one has an interest in naming? The timing is crucial because for the first time Washington decided on Tuesday to send Ukraine a missile system long enough to reach Russia.
A step whose extent we measure by the restraint of Joe Biden’s remarks, the same day in a forum at the New York Times (NYT). He who had said of Vladimir Putin two months ago that “for the love of God, this man cannot remain in power” has relied heavily on appeasement. American officials have sworn: kyiv will not use targets on Russian territory, President Zelensky has pledged to do so. Will he keep his word? Answer probably as soon as July, since it will take soldiers about three weeks to learn how to use these systems, according to a senior Pentagon official mentioned by the NOW.
“Melted co-belligerents”
The signs of escalation are multiplying, with Germany increasing its military budget on Thursday. During this time, voices are heard on the Russian side which indicate an escalation. It is “perhaps time to admit that Russia’s special operation in Ukraine is over. In the sense that a real war has begun. (…) It’s the third world war. We are forced to demilitarize not only Ukraine, but also the whole of NATO.”
Arsonist, the presenter of the Russian TV show 60 Minutes, Olga Skabeeva? Definitely. The fact remains that on Tuesday, his bellicose speech was held on Rossiya 1, the country’s largest channel. He was not disavowed. And Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian Council for International Affairs, said on Wednesday in Izvestia: “Despite everything that may be said in Washington, the risks of escalation are increasing. (…) It should be kept in mind that Russia and the United States have different definitions of the limits of Russian territory.”
Director of the European Center for Strategic Analysis (CEAS) and a good connoisseur of Russia, Philippe Migault has no doubts: “Military aid to the Ukrainians makes the countries concerned felted co-belligerents, this has been obvious since the beginning of the war. Westerners give vital information to the Ukrainians, make them benefit from their advice on strategic matters, train their troops, deliver them weapons, ”he says.
In his eyes, the rhetoric minimizing armament for its purely defensive use is absurd. “Let’s be clear, no weapon is by nature offensive or defensive, except perhaps mines which have the function of delimiting a territory. It all depends on the strategy and the nature of the action. A tank can be used to advance or retreat!” says the man who worked for several years for the French Ministry of Defense.
War or no war? In Geneva, the analysis of the director of the Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Gloria Gaggioli contrasts with that of Philippe Migault. “At this stage and whatever the capacity of the armaments delivered, the support of the Europeans and the Americans is not enough to qualify them as co-belligerents”, she affirms. For this to be the case, they would have to exercise overall control over one of the States in conflict or offer support for military action that goes “far beyond advice, training, the provision of weapons or the disclosure of information”.
A very restrictive definition to avoid seeing an increase in the number of armed conflicts during which the protection of individual rights is reduced, while international law aims to maximize it. “Think of the number of states that militarily support other states or armed groups. If we lowered the level of the criteria, we would see conflicts everywhere!” On the contrary, the threshold for entry into an international armed conflict is “very low”, defined by “the simple use of force by a State against another State”, explains Gloria Gaggioli. No more need for a statement like before 1949 where “a the intention of making war or an intention to wage war, was required to apply the relevant law”. In short, Vladimir Putin does not need to drop his rhetoric for the Geneva Conventions to apply.
Live in peace, feel at war
If an abyss seems to separate theory from the field, it is because the law is as clear as the current situation is vague. The confession comes from one of the best specialists in war, this human calamity: Andrew Clapham. The American, professor of international law at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, recently published a book with the simple title: War. In his eyes, the confusion over the state of war reveals “a profound change of era. Before, there was a time for war and a time for peace. We must renounce these certainties dating from the 19th century because the dichotomous vision they carry is no longer relevant: today, one can feel at war while living in peace.
Sanctions, cyberattacks, communication: the many tools that allow harm from a distance increase the discomfort. To this is added “the nuclear weapon, the threat of which captures the collective attention”. Unquestionably a strange period when we fear total war while continuing to live in peace.
10 dates for 100 days
- the 21st of February: Vladimir Poutine announces that Russia recognizes the independence of the two separatist republics of the east of Ukraine.
- February 24: Vladimir Putin announces the “special military operation”. De facto, he thus launched a ground invasion and a bombing campaign of Ukraine. In response, an extraordinary European Council adopts new economic sanctions.
- February 27: Vladimir Putin brandishes the nuclear threat for the first time.
- February 28: First meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators.
- 17 mars: Joe Biden calls Vladimir Putin a “war criminal”.
- 25 mars: The Russian army renounces to seize kyiv and announces to concentrate on the conquest of Donbass in the east of Ukraine.
- 2 avril: The world discovers the massacres committed in Boutcha.
- 14 avril: Ukraine sinks the Moskva, a Russian flagship.
- May 17: The last fighters entrenched in the Azovstal factory in Mariupol surrender.
- June 3: On the 100th day of the war, Moscow controls 20% of the country according to kyiv, while the Russian army tightens its grip in eastern Ukraine, its priority objective.