BarcelonaA person’s intelligence can be measured by the amount of uncertainty he is able to bear. A few days ago I heard Toni Clapés comment on this phrase by Immanuel Kant. It captivated me. Undoubtedly, the uncertainty we have had to endure for the last two years has put us to the test on an individual and collective level. It has also tested the ability of different disciplines, both artistic and scientific, to be useful in times of greatest confusion. We have learned that some fields enjoy excellent health. This is the case with medicine, although its limits have also been highlighted.
For the economy, a discipline that came out very badly from the financial, real estate and sovereign debt crisis, and which finds it difficult to interpret the implications of the great technological, social and demographic transformations that are taking place, the pandemic is to assume a new bath of humility. But it turned out well enough. Despite the high level of uncertainty, it was possible to quickly identify the magnitude of the shock that could occur, and this facilitated the adoption of unprecedented economic policy measures in record time.
Confidence index
eurozone consumption
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Confidence index
business eurozone
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Price per barrel of
Brent oil
(March 3)
Bond interest rate
10 years from the US
(March 3)
Exports
(year-on-year variation)
Idescat (December)
Trade deficit
Idescat (December)
Industry sales
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
Industrial production
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
IPC
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
IPC subjacent
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
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Confidence index
eurozone consumption
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Confidence index
business eurozone
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Price per barrel of
Brent oil
(March 3)
Bond interest rate
10 years from the US
(March 3)
Exports
(year-on-year variation)
Idescat (December)
Trade deficit
Idescat (December)
Industry sales
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
Industrial production
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
IPC
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
IPC subjacent
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
![]()
Confidence index
eurozone consumption
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Confidence index
business eurozone
(year-on-year variation)
OECD (January)
Price per barrel of
Brent oil
(March 3)
Bond interest rate
10 years from the US
(March 3)
Exports
(year-on-year variation)
Idescat (December)
Trade deficit
Idescat (December)
Industry sales
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
Industrial production
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (December)
IPC
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
IPC subjacent
(year-on-year variation)
OTHER (February)
The bath of humility generated by the current context is even greater. We cannot ignore the economic impact of the situation in which, unfortunately, we are entering too quickly, because we do not know the magnitude of the shock we will have to face. The uncertainty is extraordinary. In no time we have stopped following epidemiologists and now we are desperately demanding surgical responses from political scientists. In our house, fortunately, we have a reference center like the Cidob. But the social sciences are far less accurate than medicine. While we hope that the new media stars will help us define the limits to which human decay can reach, economists are trying to identify and quantify the channels through which the war in Ukraine can affect us.
The energetic is the most obvious. Direct exposure to Russian gas varies by country, but prices are set internationally. We will all suffer the consequences of rising energy prices. Calculator in hand, we have estimated that for every 10 dollars that the price of oil rises (on average annually) and for every 20 euros that the price of gas increases, the growth of the Spanish economy is reduced by almost half a point. As a reference, before the conflict broke out, growth of more than 5% was expected this year.
Direct exposure through other channels is clearly lower. The number of Russian tourists, which had reached 1.3 million in 2019, plummeted during the pandemic and was just beginning to raise its head. Yes, some specific subsectors, such as those related to agri-food, will be more affected, either because they were directly dependent on grain imports from Russia or Ukraine, or because they will suffer from the sharp rise in prices that is taking place globally in most raw materials in the sector.
The identified channels show that the economic impact will end up depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict. If it is resolved quickly, the impact could be very limited, but if it is not, it is difficult to limit the harm it could do. Our ability to cope with uncertainty as a society will be key.
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