(CNN) — Ian is already a hurricane, according to the 5 am ET update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Hurricane Ian now has 120 km/h winds with even higher gusts. Ian is located about 145 kilometers south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 500 kilometers southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
A hurricane watch has been issued along Florida’s west coast from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Although its exact track remains uncertain, Ian strengthened Sunday night as it churned in the Caribbean, threatening to reach Florida as a hurricane with powerful winds and dangerous storm surge.
Despite Ian going strong, there remains “greater than usual” uncertainty about his trajectory and intensity, according to the NHC.
Ian is forecast to strengthen to a major Category 3 or higher hurricane by Tuesday, the center said.
Ian is forecast to grow stronger as it approaches western Cuba on Monday morning, potentially reaching a Category 2 strength by the time it makes landfall. “Life-threatening” storm surge and gale-force winds are expected, the center said. “Efforts to protect life and property must be completed quickly,” forecasters added.
Ian is expected to produce “heavy rainfall, flash flooding and possible mudslides” in areas of higher ground, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
The models project different scenarios for where it could make landfall in Florida and how strong it could be by midweek. Until this Sunday, forecasters estimated that Ian will become a category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then weaken before reaching Florida.
Regardless of lan’s exact track and intensity, Floridians are asked to prepare for the risk of dangerous storm surge, high winds and heavy rain along the West Coast and the region known as the Florida Panhandle, the center said. of hurricanes
With possible flash and urban flooding in the Florida Keys and the Florida panhandle by midweek, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West.
Florida Governor Activates National Guard
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis activated the National Guard on Sunday morning, saying that while Ian’s path remains uncertain, his impact will be widely felt across the state. State and federal disaster declarations were made over the weekend.
One model projects Ian will make landfall in the Tampa Bay region, while another model projects landfall in the Panhandle, DeSantis said.
“Everyone in Florida is going to feel the impact of the storm,” Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie told CNN on Sunday.
A big concern is how quickly the storm could intensify, said Jason Dunion, director of the hurricane research field program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“The storm can increase its speed by 35 miles per hour (56 kilometers per hour) in one day,” Dunon said. “It can go from a tropical storm to a Category 1 (hurricane), or from a Category 1 to a Category 3 in just that 24-hour period. That makes it especially important that people pay attention to this storm in the days ahead.” “.
As Ian approaches, Floridians are asked to stock up on supplies such as radios, water, canned food and medicine for at least seven days, and to familiarize themselves with evacuation routes.
Residents of Tampa and other areas were seen lining up for sandbags as they prepared for the storm on Sunday.
Shoppers line up outside a retail store as people rush to prepare for Tropical Storm Ian, in Kissimmee, Florida, on September 25, 2022.
Filling sandbags with other community members in Orange County, Jose Lugo told CNN affiliate WFTV that he knows what can happen if the worst happens.
“It’s better to be prepared than sorry later,” Lugo said. “I was in Puerto Rico visiting my parents a couple of days before Fiona hit. I was helping them, and now I’m here helping myself and everyone else.”
Cities and counties across the state are also preparing.
Officials in Tallahassee, the state capital, are working to remove debris and make sure the city’s power lines and stormwater systems are clear. “We are doing everything we can in advance of the storm to prepare and secure our infrastructure,” Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey said.
St. Petersburg Mayor Kenneth Welch said his city on Florida’s Gulf Coast is in a vulnerable position. “Even a tropical storm can bring down our power grid for an extended period. We are educating to be prepared and plan,” Welch told CNN.
Regardless of how hard the storm hits the state, Florida is bracing for a dangerous storm surge, Guthrie said, which is when the force of a hurricane or storm pushes ocean water toward the coast.
“We could see a Category 4 storm surge and Category 1 or 2 landfall situation,” Guthrie said.
Officials in Cape Coral, a city in southwest Florida known for its many canals, were particularly concerned about storm surge and winds.
“Right now, of course we’re like a lot of other cities, we’re preparing for the worst, hoping for the best,” Cape Coral Mayor John Gunter told CNN.
In Hillsborough County, Ian’s outreach left the school district “with no choice” but to close all schools as campuses are transformed into storm shelters, according to Hillsborough County Public Schools.
Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach issued a mandatory evacuation order Saturday and canceled classes Monday because of the approaching storm.
Preparations were also underway in Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp ordered the activation of the State Operations Center on Monday “to prepare for any potential impacts from Tropical Storm Ian later in the week.”
“Although models suggest it will weaken before landfall on Thursday, and its final path has yet to be determined, Ian could cause severe weather damage across much of Georgia,” a news release from the governor’s office said.
Experts call not to let your guard down
Dunion said ocean temperatures are currently extremely warm, even deep below the surface, and this means “a lot of fuel to power storms.”
“It can cause a storm to rapidly intensify and many of our models suggest that we will see that rapid intensification in the next few days,” Dunion said.
Ken Graham, deputy administrator for NOAA weather services, told CNN that rainfall is a leading cause of death in strong tropical systems.
“When you close your eyes and think of a hurricane, you think of the wind, but it’s the water that’s really hurting people and that’s what we really need to talk about. And it’s increasing with climate change,” Graham said. .
Even if it hits as a Category 2 hurricane, Ian could cause significant storm surge, Graham said. “Actually, there can be more people affected by a storm when it expands like this. So people can’t let their guard down, regardless of the category,” he added.
“Many people judge the current storm by what they have experienced in the past and the reality is that every storm is completely different,” Graham said.
CNN’s Robert Shackelford, Melissa Alonso, Caitlin Kaiser and Michelle Watson contributed to this report.