What is the new British law on Rwanda?
Backed by a new treaty between London and Kigali, the text of the law, entitled “security of Rwanda (asylum and immigration)”, adopted in the British Parliament on the night of April 22 to 23, aims to respond to the conclusions of the Supreme Court , which deemed the initial project illegal last November. It allows the government to clarify the treaty negotiated with Rwanda, to send asylum seekers who arrived illegally in the United Kingdom to this African Great Lakes country after January 1, 2022. Their file will be studied in Rwanda where they will remain while their request is examined but, and this is the novelty of this text, whatever the outcome, they will not be able to return to the United Kingdom. On November 15, 2023, the British Supreme Court declared this project illegal due to the risks faced by asylum seekers in Rwanda, and the possibility that they would be sent to another country by local authorities.
Concretely, the new law provides that “any decision maker” – whether a minister, an immigration officer or a court or tribunal reviewing asylum decisions – “must consider Rwanda as a safe country” regarding the protection of refugees and asylum seekers. It also ensures the primacy of the British Parliament over foreign courts of justice. Legal remedies to block its application based on international laws will not be taken into account, neither the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, nor the 1949 Convention for the Suppression of the Traffic in Persons, nor the Convention European Union of Human Rights. The final version of the treaty with Rwanda also ensures that asylum seekers will be granted permanent residence in this country, if they wish, without benefiting from refugee status. Resident status will allow them to obtain housing and “adequate support” (without further details). If the migrant does not want to stay in Rwanda, he is free to leave the country, adds the new law.
Are legal remedies possible?
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak indicated on Monday April 22 that the law would take effect as soon as the second version of the treaty between the United Kingdom and Rwanda was ratified, that is to say in ” the next days “. Only one possibility of appeal will be accepted: if the asylum seeker “is at real, imminent and foreseeable risk of suffering serious and irreversible harm” by being sent to Rwanda. However, NGOs have already indicated that they will support asylum seekers in their appeals, as the United Kingdom cannot reject its international obligations by simply adopting a law.
In order to give himself a little leeway, Rishi Sunak promised that “the first flight will leave for Rwanda in ten to twelve weeks”. This delay aims to ensure that all obstacles have been removed. Two hundred employees were trained in the management of legal appeals, 25 court rooms and 150 judges were identified to study these appeals, and 500 people were trained to support asylum seekers in Rwanda. The head of government plans the establishment of“a regular rhythm of several flights per month, during the summer and beyond, until the boats stop coming.”
Can this law really deter migrants?
When he came to power in November 2022, the conservative leader set five political objectives, including “to stop the small boats” came from the French coasts. He didn’t succeed. On Monday, he again accused the Labor Party and the European Convention on Human Rights, which he has threatened to leave, of blocking his business. Even if the main obstacle actually came from the British Supreme Court.
While Rishi Sunak believes that this legislation and the take-off of flights to Rwanda is an important step forward, he admitted that “success will only be there when the boats stop coming”. The possibility of being sent to Rwanda will therefore have to be sufficiently dissuasive for migrants to consider crossing the Channel too risky. For the moment, this has not been the case: 6,264 people have arrived by boat since January 1, 2024 and 29,437 in 2023, according to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior. According to the same statistics, the nationalities most represented in arrivals by « small boats » rather concern countries plagued by political problems. In 2023, Afghans accounted for 20% of arrivals, ahead of Iranians (13%), Turks (11%), Eritreans (9%) and Iraqis (9%). This explains a fairly high rate of protection for those seeking asylum (59% between 2017 and 2019). In the United Kingdom as elsewhere, migrants are fleeing difficult lives in the hope of finding a better one.
Can Rishi Sunak hope to benefit electorally from this law?
Politically, a notable drop in migrant arrivals would only slightly improve his chances of remaining in power following the next general elections, which will take place before the end of January 2025. The latest poll from the British institute YouGov on the intentions of vote, published on April 16-17, gives the Conservative Party 21%. Far behind the Labor Party, at 44%. That’s more than 20 points difference.