MEXICO CITY/WASHINGTON, DC – Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and food supplies, as attacks on commercial ships escalate and oil prices remain elevated. The declaration, made in a statement broadcast on Iranian state television, comes as the U.S. And Israel continue military operations against Iran, and as the conflict enters its thirteenth day, according to NPR reporting.
While international attention has focused on the impact on energy markets, the potential disruption to global food supplies poses an equally significant threat. Approximately 100 vessels previously transited the Strait of Hormuz daily, but that number has dwindled since the start of the U.S.-Israeli campaign, with Iran reportedly laying sea mines in the narrow channel. A prolonged closure could jeopardize agricultural production worldwide and place over 100 million people at risk of a humanitarian crisis.
The Strait of Hormuz is not solely a conduit for oil; it’s a vital artery for the global food system. Key staples – wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugar, and animal feed – rely on passage through the Strait. Farmers globally depend on the fertilizers and fuel that as well transit the waterway. The Gulf states, heavily reliant on food imports, are particularly vulnerable. Roughly 70% of the food consumed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq travels through the Strait, representing a daily demand of approximately 191.3 million pounds of food, according to FAOSTAT data.
Replacing these disrupted imports would necessitate an unprecedented humanitarian operation, potentially through contested airspace. For comparison, the United Nations World Food Programme delivered an average of just 15 million pounds of food per day to 81 million people in 71 countries in 2024.
A blockade would also significantly impact Iran itself, restricting energy exports and driving up the cost of imported staples like wheat, rice, animal feed, and vegetable oil. Rising prices have already contributed to social unrest within Iran, as evidenced by mass protests earlier this year.
Historically, food price spikes and shortages have been catalysts for political instability. The 2008 surge in food prices sparked riots in numerous countries, and similar price increases in 2010-2011 contributed to the Arab Spring. More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drove up global grain, fertilizer, and fuel prices, exacerbating food insecurity.
Beyond the Gulf region, farmers in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the United States depend on stable supplies of fertilizer and fuel. Natural gas is a key component in nitrogen fertilizer, and an estimated 30-40% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased fertilizer and fuel costs will likely lead to reduced application rates and lower crop yields, impacting the entire food supply chain.
The potential for a water crisis adds another layer of urgency. Reports indicate attacks on desalination plants in both Bahrain and Iran last week. Deliberate strikes targeting these facilities would constitute war crimes under international law, threatening the lives of millions. While infrastructure can be repaired, desalination systems are complex, and alternative water sources are limited.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged the situation, stating the U.S. Military is “not ready” to escort oil ships through the Strait, prioritizing the destruction of Iran’s offensive capabilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reported Friday that U.S.-Israeli strikes have hit more than 15,000 Iranian targets since the start of the operation. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel before dipping as the U.S. And Israel maintained their military posture, according to NBC News.
The conflict has already resulted in hundreds of deaths across the Middle East, with over 1,200 reported fatalities in Iran due to Israeli and American strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. Thirteen deaths have been reported in Israel and six in the United Arab Emirates as a result of Iranian retaliatory attacks. Approximately 3.2 million Iranians have been displaced from their homes, according to the United Nations refugee agency.
