2024-04-12 02:47:47
Although Iranian threats to respond to what it says is an Israeli bombing of its consulate in Damascus have, so far, focused on Tel Aviv’s embassies abroad, experts do not rule out that Tehran, or its affiliated militias, will direct its weapons at targets in the Red Sea.
Since the bombing of the consulate in a raid attributed to Israel, on the first of April, Tehran’s threats of revenge have not ceased, the most recent of which was the statement of the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, during Eid prayers, on Wednesday, that “the malicious entity made a mistake in attacking our consulate, and it must be punished, and it will receive punishment.” His description was reported by the Iranian Tasnim Agency.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, Khamenei’s advisor, said on Sunday that “all of Israel’s embassies are no longer safe,” according to what was also reported by “Tasnim.”
On Wednesday, the American Wall Street Journal reported that American intelligence reports show that an attack by Iran or its agents on Israeli targets may be imminent, while General Michael Eric Corella, commander of the US Central Command responsible for his country’s military operations in the Middle East, headed to Israel. To coordinate the response to any Iranian attack.
The Israeli presence in the Red Sea
Over the decades, Israel has strengthened its presence in strategic points on the coast of the Red Sea, so as not to repeat the bottleneck in supplies that it suffered when the Egyptian Navy took control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the 1973 war, including:
- The Eritrean island of Dahlak (an archipelago of islands off the eastern coast of Eritrea), and a military base was established there to monitor and control the movement of ships and oil tankers, according to Hebrew reports, as well as for the possibility of using it as a station to operate submarines equipped with nuclear missiles.
- Israel obtained a foothold on the islands of Sintyan and Demera in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which makes it easier for it to monitor the strait, and it cooperated with the Eritrean army in training and arming.
- Tel Aviv also has bases in the western part of Eritrea, including the Rawagabat and Makhalawi bases on the Sudan border.
- Reports indicate that in 2016, Israel established an electronic intelligence base in Eritrea to monitor the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Objectives of the “rehabilitation” strike
National security and international relations expert, Major General Muhammad Abdel Wahed, monitors what he sees as indicators of the possibility of an Iranian strike in response to the targeting of the consulate, including:
- There is pressure inside Iran on the government to launch this strike.
- There are meetings that took place between Iranian intelligence and the American Central Intelligence in an Arab country to exercise restraint and prevent escalation.
- Statements by US President Joe Biden to stand with Israel in the event that Tehran launches a strike on Tel Aviv.
- The visit of the Commander of the US Central Command to Tel Aviv to discuss the possible Iranian response.
Regarding the naval targets that might be attacked, Abdul Wahed adds:
- Iran may resort to symbolic operations against Israeli interests by one of its arms in the region after providing it with advanced technology and weapons.
- Israeli military vessels and naval units in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean may be among the targets.
- Specifically, the island of Dahlak on the Eritrean coast, which has an early warning system, may be a potential target, in light of Tehran’s search for a strong target, but one that does not cause a widespread war.
- The Houthis may target Israeli military naval vessels in the Red Sea.
Comfortable choice
An expert on Iranian affairs, Wijdan Abdel Rahman, describes freely choosing Israeli targets to direct the Iranian strike as a “comfortable option” for Tehran, because “it will leave the door open for it to evade responsibility, as Iran will not use its territory to directly target Israel.”
Regarding the possibilities in this regard, he told Sky News Arabia: “Seizing military or commercial ships belonging to Israel, as well as commercial ships belonging to the United States and Britain.”
In this regard, Abdul Rahman refers to the statements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander, Ali Reza Tangsiri, in which he threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which may mean that Tehran “may target Israeli commercial ships in the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the sea straits.” .
Not quick response
The American researcher specializing in international affairs, Irina Zuckerman, discusses the following sites as potential targets in the Iranian targeting circle, all of which are in the Red Sea between Eritrea and Somalia:
- An Israeli army base in Eritrea is allegedly in the Dahlak archipelago. Eritrea has a poor security situation in general, and has previously cooperated with Iran.
- A small base or listening post on top of Mount Emba Sowera in Eritrea, the highest mountain there, and if information about its potential targeting is accurate, could be a target for a drone due to the isolated nature of that location.
Regarding implementation tools, the American researcher says:
- Iran prefers to work through the Houthis rather than directly, to avoid exposing its territory to a direct strike, especially since Israel has warned it that if Iran launches strikes against any Israeli target, it will respond forcefully against Iran directly.
- It is possible that Iran and the Houthis will also cooperate with Somali pirates to attack Israeli ships.
In this case, Irina Tsukerman expects the circle of battles to expand, because: “Israel has also prepared weapons that can participate in direct offensive operations, similar to what the United States and Britain did to respond to the Houthis by directing strikes at them.”
Also, “Israel, America and Britain are unlikely to leave such attacks unanswered, otherwise their shipping industry will face complete destruction.”
Accordingly, the American researcher believes that Iran will not rush to launch a strike, but “will wait until the vigilance of Israel and its allies calms down, and it is unlikely that the attack will be major.”
1712897127
#rehabilitation #strike…Israels #maritime #targets #attract #Iran