“It’s a game of chicken,” remarked Nevo Cohen, a political strategist who ran the 2022 election campaign for the far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir. This high-stakes maneuvering follows Israel’s October 27 parliamentary election, which concluded without a clear winner, setting the stage for protracted coalition negotiations.
Following the inconclusive ballot for the 120-member Knesset—Israel’s first general election since the October 7, 2023, attack—party leaders will trickle into the residence of President Isaac Herzog to officially recommend their pick for prime minister. President Herzog plans to begin consultations with politicians from 11 parties as early as Wednesday, November 4, before bestowing the mandate to build a governing coalition on the most viable candidate.
The Arithmetic of Deadlock and Presidential Consultations
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main center-right rival, Gadi Eisenkot, secured the 61 seats required for an outright parliamentary majority. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc dropped to 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s opposition alliance garnered 48 seats. Meanwhile, surging turnout among Arab citizens delivered a historic 19 seats to the two main Arab factions.
President Herzog urged political leaders to approach the upcoming consultations with an open mind and a willingness to compromise. “I have already said that I hope the representatives will come with an open mind, and today I would add: with an open heart, to listen and share ideas and find creative solutions to prevent another election,” Herzog said during a state memorial ceremony for Israel’s first president, Chaim Weizmann. “Stop climbing the trees and face that reality. This week, at the President’s Residence, we will try to set up ladders so that the leaders can face this reality in a measured and cautious way.”
Pathways to Power and Historical Precedents
Netanyahu remains in office as a caretaker prime minister while facing a complex path to another term. His Likud party is set to be the largest in the next Knesset with 27 seats, and his supporters are expected to recommend him during the presidential meetings. To reach a majority, Netanyahu could attempt to peel away at least eight lawmakers from Eisenkot’s alliance or pursue a unity government.
However, trust remains a scarce commodity in Israeli politics. Mr. Shay, a lawmaker in Benny Gantz’s party at the time of the previous coalition between Netanyahu and Gantz, recalled how that partnership collapsed when Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset instead of rotating the premiership. “We thought we were doing the right thing, and in the end Netanyahu cheated us,” Mr. Shay said.
Eisenkot faces three distinct paths to power: peeling off Netanyahu’s allies, forming an uncomfortable unity government with the incumbent prime minister, or leaning on the Arab bloc. Relying on parties like the pragmatic Ra’am—which secured eight seats—or securing the passive backing of the 11-seat Joint List to block no-confidence votes could allow Eisenkot to form a minority government.
Disputes Over the Electoral Process
Amid the coalition jockeying, the legitimacy of the vote has become a fierce battleground. Netanyahu and his Likud party baselessly accused the Arab parties of stealing the election, alleging criminal offenses including bribery, threats, violence, forgeries, and the use of prohibited software to mobilize voters. On Sunday, the Likud organization once again condemned the electoral outcome, asserting that a “black cloud” hung over the ballot.
Tensions escalated when Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, overseeing the country’s elections committee, said in a letter that he had seen intelligence indicating potential “improper influence through foreign funding” in the elections.
