2023-09-25 09:02:25
James Waterhouse BBC Ukraine correspondent from Kiev
September 25, 2023
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And upcoming elections in allies such as Poland, Slovakia and the United States are making the situation even more confusing. Some candidates are prioritizing domestic issues and neglecting military support for Ukraine.
While their relationship may be close and their handshakes firm, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is rolling up his sleeves and working hard during his visit to the United States and Canada.
Indeed, Canada’s problems are much easier to deal with than those in the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion “as long as necessary” and has received cross-party support in Canada.
The United States can provide more assistance, but the political situation is more complicated. President Zelensky just received a new $325 million in military aid from the White House, but it’s not the $24 billion he had been expecting. Moreover, the military aid proposal has stalled in the U.S. Congress due to budget disagreements.
The United States has deep pockets, but its politics are much more complex.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received another $325 million (approximately £265 million) military aid package from the White House, but it is not the $24 billion he had been hoping for.
The proposal has stalled in the U.S. Congress over budget disagreements.
And the difficulties don’t stop there.
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Washington has announced $325m (£265m) in military aid to Ukraine.
In addition to talks with U.S. President Joe Biden, the Ukrainian leader also met with U.S. Republican politicians who are trying to stem growing doubts within their party about continued support for Ukraine.
“We are protecting the free world, and that should resonate with Republicans,” a government adviser in Kyiv told me.
“It was actually more difficult at the beginning of the war because the situation was chaotic,” he said. “Now we can be more specific with our demands because we know what our allies have and where they store it. Our president You can serve as the Minister of Defense in many countries!”
Unfortunately for Kyiv, Zelensky is not another country’s defense minister, and he faces growing global political challenges.
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Ukraine war: BBC visits the front lines of Ukraine’s counterattack against Russia
“Why should Ukraine continue to get a blank check? What does victory look like?”
These are questions the Ukrainian leader has been trying to answer on the international stage.
This is why Zelensky now seems to be conducting more consultations rather than lobbying for support, all in order to continue to receive help from Western allies.
Just last week, Kiev had a dispute with Poland, one of its most loyal allies, over Ukrainian grain imports.
Poland imposed an import ban on Ukrainian grains, leading Zelenskiy to indirectly accuse Warsaw of “helping Russia.”
This caused a huge backlash in Poland. Polish President Andrzej Duda described Ukraine as “a drowning man who may pull you under the water with him.”
Later, the situation eased.
Indeed, these are difficult diplomatic moments, even for experienced wartime leaders.
And upcoming elections in allies such as Poland, Slovakia and the United States are making the situation even more confusing. Some candidates are prioritizing domestic issues and neglecting military support for Ukraine.
Serhiy Gerasymchuk of the foreign policy think tank Ukraine Prism told the BBC: “There is a balance to be struck between voter satisfaction and military aid, which makes things very complicated.”
“Ukraine must weigh the promotion of its interests and use all possible tools, taking into account the situation of partner countries and the EU. This is a challenge.”
These are similar “democratic cycle” issues that Russian leader Vladimir Putin does not need to worry about, but that is why Kiev is trying to portray the war as not just a fight for its sovereignty, but for democracy itself.
“The moral implications of this war are huge,” the adviser said.
The current situation is similar to the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 by Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom after the collapse of the former Soviet Union.
At that time, Ukraine agreed to give up the remaining Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory in exchange for the commitment of other signatories to respect and protect its territorial integrity.
Nine years later, the Russian invasion made it all look like a broken promise.
Kiev is also trying to play the longer game, trying to better engage with countries like Brazil and South Africa, which have been indifferent to Russia’s incursions.
This is also a strategy that does not bring immediate results.
“It is true that we depend on success on the front lines,” a Ukrainian government adviser told the BBC.
He emphasized to reporters that the media had oversimplified Ukraine’s counteroffensive, focusing too much on the front lines of the war, where the results were minimal. He believes that the outside world has ignored the actual results achieved by Kiev’s missile attack on Crimea and its attack on Russian warships.
Ukraine has always claimed that its counterattack “will not be rushed”.
But as the politics of the war become increasingly entwined, Ukraine’s strategy is being tested like never before.
Hanna Chornous, Insaf Abbas and Anna Tsyba contributed to this report.
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