2023-09-13 09:06:48
2023-09-13 17:06 Lianhe News Network Turns the corner: On September 13, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a new cabinet reshuffle and a list of senior Liberal Democratic Party personnel. The picture shows this new internal…
The domestic support rate of Japan’s Kishida regime continues to decline. On the evening of September 12, the personnel reshuffle of the Kishida cabinet and the list of high-level personnel changes of the Liberal Democratic Party were announced in the hope of improving the image of the regime, saving public support, and also for the sake of the fall of 2024. The Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election layout. In this list of Kishida cabinet reform, 13 of the 19 people have been changed, and 5 of them are women. This is the same maximum number of women as the previous 2001 Koizumi Junichiro and 2014 Abe cabinets. The new cabinet list reflects Kishida’s “mainstream faction” arrangement to create a balance among factions and stabilize the existing situation. However, in terms of personnel for high-level positions in the party, he also wooed the Abe faction, the largest faction, and contained potential political opponents. Prepare yourself for the 2024 presidential election.
▌Reason for reorganization: Opinion polls continue to decline, planning for 2024
The Kishida regime’s support rate has been rising since the beginning of this year, from 33% in January to a peak of 46% in May. At that time, Hiroshima was hosting the G7 meeting, which boosted the Kishida regime’s opinion polls. But just after the G7 ended, the approval rate fell month by month, falling to 36% in early September, and the disapproval rate also increased from 31% in May to 43%. Public dissatisfaction has greatly exceeded support.
The main factors that caused the Kishida regime’s reversal in the polls came from internal people’s livelihood issues: First, domestic inflation has not been resolved. People’s livelihood consumption has experienced price increases and rising prices during this year, which is most likely to accumulate public resentment.The second is the “My Number Card chaos”, the Japanese government launched a personal digital ID card「My Number Card」(or Individual Number Card) policy was originally intended to integrate personal information, insurance, taxation and other information. However, personal information was leaked, and a large number of data were misvalued or logged in incorrectly. This not only disrupted people’s lives, but also directly impacted Kishida. trust in the government.
Internal problems, declining polls, and the LDP’s difficult battle in local elections in April this year have forced the Kishida administration to consider the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle in order to refresh personnel, improve its image, and at the same time Stabilize your position within the party and ensure your chances of winning the 2024 general election. Kishida Fumio’s term as president (party leader) of the Liberal Democratic Party is until September 2024. At that time, the key election to determine the candidate for prime minister will be held-the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election-and Kishida, who will take over as president of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2021, is bound to strive for re-election. ; Therefore, how to arrange party personnel and cabinet candidates to prepare for the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 House of Representatives reelection when the term expires. This personnel reshuffle is the key to Kishida’s ability to stabilize the situation in the second half of the year.
Photo/Associated Press 5 female cabinet members, from left to right: Minister of Local Development Hideko Jiami, Minister of Child Policy Ayuko Kato, Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa,…
▌An eye-catching candidate in the new cabinet list?
There are a total of 19 cabinet candidates this time, of which 13 have been replaced and 6 have been retained. The reshuffle is not a small change. One of the purposes of the new list is to improve the public’s image and favor through the new personnel situation. There are 11 people on the list who are entering the cabinet for the first time. In addition, the number of women has been increased to 5. Although it is the highest number in Japan’s cabinet record, But in fact, it has attracted the same number of people as during the periods of Junichiro Koizumi in 2001 and Shinzo Abe in 2014, and it has not exceeded the exception.
In this reshuffle, the candidate for Foreign Minister has attracted much attention from the outside world. The original Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng was replaced and replaced by former Justice Minister Kamikawa Yoko. Yoko Kamikawa, 70 years old and a graduate of Harvard University in the United States, is Japan’s third post-war prime minister since Makiko Tanaka (daughter of former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka Kakuei) and Junko Kawaguchi (2002) in the Junichiro Koizumi cabinet. female foreign minister.
The subtle thing is that Yoko Kamikawa was active in politics as the Minister of Justice in the past and had little diplomatic experience. She served as Minister of Justice during the terms of Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga. In recent years, Kamikawa has received the most attention from the public in 2018. While serving as Dharma Chancellor, he executed the death penalty of Shoko Asahara of Aum Shinrikyo (for details, see: “Execution of Aum Shinrikyo Case: Execution of Shoko Asahara, the Leader of Aum Shinrikyo”). But why should Yoko Kamikawa, who has less diplomatic qualifications, be appointed? For Kishida Fumio, who was the former Minister of Foreign Affairs and has always attached great importance to diplomatic response, considering that in addition to the image bonus of being a woman, another possibility is that Kamikawa and the replaced Hayashima are the same, and they themselves belong to the Kishida faction. The replacement of candidates will have relatively little impact on Kishida in the implementation of policy will.
As for the Minister of Defense, Hamada Yasuichi, who originally had no faction, was replaced by Nori Kihara of the Motegi faction, the third largest faction in the party. The 54-year-old Minoru Kihara served as an assistant to the Prime Minister during the Abe and Yoshihide Suga cabinets. He was also the director of the cross-party friendly Taiwan-friendly “Japanese-Chinese Parliamentarians’ Symposium”. He has visited Taiwan many times in the past and has also He once expressed support for the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s statement that “if there is something wrong with Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan.” He is considered a figure who is obviously pro-Taiwan and China in defense policy.
Yoko Kamikawa used to be active in politics as Minister of Justice and had little diplomatic experience; under Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo and Suga Yoshihide… Kihara Minoru is also the director of the cross-party friendly Taiwan-friendly “Japanese-Chinese Parliamentarians Forum”. In the past A record of many visits to Taiwan…
▌Faction arrangements for cabinet reform: Why is it called the “mainstream faction”?
In this personnel reorganization, it can be seen that Kishida Fumio deliberately maintained the balance of factions and consolidated his own position. In the list of 19 people, according to the number of factions, they are: 4 from the Abe faction, 4 from the Aso faction, 3 from the Motegi faction, 2 from the Kishida faction, 2 from the Second Order faction, 1 from the Tanigaki group, and 2 from the Wu faction. , 1 member of the Komeito Party.
In addition, in terms of high-level personnel within the party, Taro Aso, the elder of the Aso faction who is currently the vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Toshimitsu Motegi, the elder of the Motegi faction who is currently the party secretary-general, and Koichi Hagiuda, the important figure of the Abe faction who is currently the chairman of the party’s political affairs committee, are the three The continued retention of the most powerful leader of the faction is not only to maintain the stability of the faction, but also because if Kishida wants to seek re-election in 2024, he will definitely need the support of the top three factions in the party – especially the largest faction. The Abe faction has 100 members. This structure that brings together powerful candidates from each faction is considered to be the “mainstream faction” system established by Kishida. However, Kishida’s active efforts to win over the Abe faction may change the structure of the current Big Three (Kishida, Aso, and Motegi) in the future.
The arrangement of this general mainstream faction also contains the foreshadowing of the factional struggle. One of the people in the news this time is Yuko Obuchi, who was appointed as the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s election countermeasures committee.
New high-level personnel for the Liberal Democratic Party, from left to right: Election Countermeasures Committee Chairman Obuchi Yuko, General Affairs Chairman Moriyama Yu, Vice President Ma…
The 49-year-old Yuko Obuchi is the daughter of former Prime Minister “Uncle Heisei” Obuchi Keizo. When Taro Aso became Prime Minister in 2008, Yuko was “Japan’s youngest post-war cabinet member” and served as the head of the Ministry of Education. Minister in charge of countermeasures; in 2014, Abe served as Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, but was caught up in a political donation scandal and resigned in the same year. Even when his home was raided by the Tokyo Prefectural Police Special Investigation Department, Obuchi used a drill to destroy the existence. The hard drive containing the data is nicknamed “Drill Yuko”. This is a stain on her political path. It is also the biggest internal and external concern for Obuchi when it is rumored that she is expected to become prime minister.
Yuko Obuchi is a member of the Motegi faction, the third largest faction in the party. In fact, the name of this Motegi faction is the Heisei Research Association. It is commonly called the Motegi faction because the current president is Motegi Toshimitsu. The Heisei Research Society used to be led by former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita (called the Takeshita faction at the time), and Obuchi Yuko’s father, Obuchi Keizo, also served as president; after President Wataru Takeshita retired and died of illness in 2021, Motegi Toshimitsu took over the leadership of the faction. Although Motegi is the president of the faction, Motegi does not yet have complete control over the influence within the faction.
The subtle thing is that Motegi Toshimitsu is one of the candidates within the party who may be interested in competing for the president and prime minister. Therefore, he will be a potential threat to Kishida Fumio and his faction, and Obuchi Yuko is also optimistic about becoming a female president. As the candidate for prime minister, if Obuchi Yuko holds an important position within the party and can meet the expectations of the Motegi faction and have the opportunity to compete with Motegi Toshimitsu, Kishida can take advantage of the situation and turn Obuchi into a personnel arrangement to restrain Motegi Toshimitsu. .
This kind of personnel control method seems to be also reflected in the candidates who are retained in the cabinet list this time. Those who have not been replaced this time include Digital Minister Taro Kono, Minister of Economy and Security Takaichi Sanae, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasunari Nishimura. Both Kono and Takaichi were opponents of Kishida in the presidential election last time, although Taro Kono had a personal number card. Chaos has been criticized, but staying in office may have a restraining effect.
The 49-year-old Yuko Obuchi (left in the picture) is the daughter of former Prime Minister “Uncle Heisei” Obuchi Keizo. In 2008, Aso…
Cabinet reshuffle list:
Prime Minister: Fumio Kishida (66 years old, Kishida faction)
Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications: Junji Suzuki (65 years old, Abe faction)
Minister of Justice: Koizumi Ryuji (70 years old, second-order faction)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Yoko Kamikawa (70 years old, Kishida faction)
Minister of Finance: Shunichi Suzuki (70 years old, Aso faction)
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology: Moriyama Masahito (69 years old, Kishida school)
Health, Labor and Welfare: Takemi Keizo (71 years old, Aso faction)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries: Miyashichiro (65 years old, Abe faction)
Economy, Industry: Yasunomi Nishimura (60 years old, Abe faction)
Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Tetsuo Saito (71 years old, Komeito)
Minister of Environment: Shintaro Ito (70 years old, Aso faction)
Minister of Defense: Minoru Kihara (54 years old, Motegi faction)
Chief Cabinet Secretary: Matsuno Hiroshi (61 years old, Abe faction)
Several ministers: Taro Kono (60 years old, Aso faction)
Minister of Reconstruction: Tsuchiya Nosoko (71 years old, no faction)
National Police: Matsumura Masashi (59 years old, Motegi faction)
Child policy: Ayuko Kato (44 years old, Tanigaki Group)
Restoration of economics: Yoshitaka Shindo (65 years old, Mogi school)
Economic security: Takaichi Sanae (62 years old, no faction)
Local Creation: Jijian Eiko (47 years old, second-order sect)
List of Liberal Democratic Party members:
President of the Liberal Democratic Party: Fumio Kishida (66 years old, Kishida faction)
Vice President: Taro Aso (82 years old, Aso faction)
Secretary-General: Toshimitsu Mogi (67 years old, Mogi faction)
Government Investigation Chairman: Koichi Hagiuda (67 years old, Abe faction)
General Affairs Chairman: Yu Moriyama (78 years old, Moriyama faction, the smallest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, with only 8 people)
Chairman of the Election Countermeasures Committee: Yuko Obuchi (49 years old, Motegi faction)
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