Japan’s Demographic Crisis: Population Trends and Future Projections

2024-04-12 08:25:00

Japan’s demographic crisis continues. (Reuters file photo)

Japan’s total population has been declining for 13 consecutive years. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ announcement today (12th), the population estimate as of October 1 last year showed that Japan’s total population, including foreigners, exceeded 124 million, a year-on-year decrease of 595,000. People, it has been falling for 13 consecutive years. The number of Japanese people alone decreased by 837,000 year-on-year, the largest decrease since statistics were collected in 1950. According to further estimates, due to the increase in single men and women, the average family size in Japan will be less than 2 to 1.99 people by 2033.

Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced that as of October last year, there were 124,352,000 people in Japan, including foreigners, 595,000 less than the same period the previous year. The Japanese population alone was only 121,193,000, 837,000 less than the previous year. In terms of age, as the post-war baby boomers begin to join in 2022, the number of elderly people over 75 years old in Japan increased by 713,000 to 20.078 million, exceeding 20 million for the first time. However, the number of people aged 14 or under was only 14.173 million, 329,000 less than last year, accounting for 11.4% of the total population, the lowest on record.

The number of elderly people living alone in Japan is expected to continue to rise.  (Reuters)The number of elderly people living alone in Japan is expected to continue to rise.  (Reuters)

The number of elderly people living alone in Japan is expected to continue to rise. (Reuters)

The number of unmarried elderly people living alone with no close relatives will increase significantly

In addition, the population aged 15 to 64, which is the main labor force, continued to decrease, falling by 256,000 from last year to 73.952 million, accounting for 59.5% of the total population, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year. The population over 65 years old decreased by 9,000, the first decrease since the aging of Japanese society, but the proportion still increased to 29.1%, the highest on record.

The National Institute of Social Security and Population Issues of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that it is estimated that by 2033, the average family size in Japan will be less than 2 people, to 1.99 people. By 2047, it will drop to 1.92 people. This is mainly due to the increase in the unmarried population, which will lead to an increase in the number of single-person households over 65 years old in the future. The institute said that according to estimates, by 2050, about 60% of men in Japan will be unmarried, and more than 30% of women will be unmarried. The institute said that the number of elderly people without close relatives will rise sharply, and the problems of social isolation and loneliness will become serious.

The study also pointed out that the proportion of one-person households in Japan will increase from 38% in 2020 to 44.3% in 2050. Elderly people over 65 years old living alone will account for 26.1% of the total population by 2050, and the proportion of unmarried elderly people living alone will reach 59.7%. , an increase of 26 percentage points in 30 years.

The original article was published on AM730

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