2023-11-20 18:40:57
Javier Milei swept 21 of the 24 provinces of Argentina. In the second round on Sunday, the libertarian candidate won by more than 11 points over the Peronist Sergio Massa, who is also the current Minister of Economy. The Argentine newspaper La Nación has described the Milei phenomenon as the most extraordinary leap to power since the return of democracy 40 years ago.
Just to get an idea of how extraordinary Milei’s victory is, it is worth mentioning that La Libertad Avanza, his anti-system party, did not exist until two years ago.
LOOK: The keys to Milei’s victory: “The clearest message is that Argentine society got fed up and decided for change”
Argentina is mired in a deep economic crisis, with annual inflation exceeding double digits and poverty rates that are increasing. That is the context in which the proposal for radical change that Milei has expressed resonated with the citizens, who decided to take a turn and punish Peronism, which has governed the country for 26 and a half of the 40 years since the return to democracy after the last military dictatorship (1976-1983).
Javier Milei celebrates with his girlfriend Fátima Flórez after winning the second round of the presidential elections in Argentina. (Photo by Emiliano Lasalvia/AFP).
“Today the reconstruction of Argentina begins. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back. Enough of the impoverishing model of caste, of the omnipresent State, which only benefits some while the majority of Argentines suffer, today we embrace freedom to once again be a world power,” said Milei, 53, on Sunday night. during his first speech after confirming his overwhelming victory.
“Today the idea that the State is a loot to be distributed among politicians and their friends ends,” he continued.
“Today is a historic night, not because of us, but because one way of doing politics has ended and another begins,” Milei insisted.
“Today we once again embrace the ideas of freedom, the ideas of our founding fathers,” he added.
Results of the elections in Argentina. (AFP).
Milei will take office on December 10 from Peronist Alberto Fernández, who chose not to run for re-election.
Peronism
On Sunday, it suffered the worst electoral defeat in its history.
Below, we explain the factors that were key to Milei’s victory.
The economy
The economist Javier Milei is going to govern a country that registers more than 142% annual inflation and where poverty is above 40%.
Inflation in Argentina. (AFP).
Argentina must also comply in the coming months with millionaire disbursements to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the 45 billion loan granted in 2018, during the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
Poverty in Argentina. (AFP).
Milei has already announced that he will seek an agreement with the IMF and that he is willing to make adjustments to public spending even above what that organization demands. This could lead to a cut in the million-dollar state subsidies for public service rates and social programs, which reach several million Argentines.
In his opinion column in the newspaper The nation, journalist Claudio Jacquelin explained on Monday that the more than 11 percentage points that Milei gained over Massa express the anger of a social majority with the succession of failures in recent years and the disastrous economic situation, plus the fear of being rewarded or a way of doing politics and governing was perpetuated. “Rejection and fear that everything would remain the same or aggravate the needs of society,” he indicated.
“Yesterday’s election is more the consequence of the critical situation of the present and the failures accumulated for more than a decade than a certain and convinced commitment to the future of all its voters. The rejection of what was known (and suffered) prevailed over the unknown or the horror of the unknown. An absolute change, without a net, that Milei interpreted and embodied better than any of the rivals she had in this very long electoral process,” Jacquelin added.
Javier Milei raises a fake $100 bill with his image during the closing of his electoral campaign in Córdoba, Argentina, on November 16, 2023. (Photo by DIEGO LIMA/AFP).
For his part, Argentine political analyst Rosendo Fraga told BBC Mundo that “Milei appears as an alternative where the economic and social situation is even worse than on the two previous occasions (in reference to the hyperinflation of 1989 with Raúl Alfonsín and the social outbreak of 2001, when Fernando de la Rúa fell).”
So, in this context that the country is experiencing, the selection of Massa as a Peronist candidate was very risky, since he has been Minister of Economy since July 2022, more than a year ago, and he is credited with much of the responsibility for the current crisis. Furthermore, in the campaign he was labeled as the minister of 142% inflation.
This Monday, Milei gave several interviews to Argentine media where he indicated that controlling inflation will take between 18 and 24 months. In addition, she announced that her first measures will include privatization of public companies and a profound reform of the State.
“We are going to start first with the reform of the State, to put the public accounts in cash very quickly,” he told Radio Miter.
Javier Milei waves a chainsaw between his sister Karina Milei and the candidate for governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Carolina Píparo, during a political rally in La Plata, on September 12, 2023. (AFP).
Anti-system candidate
Javier Milei has promised to dollarize the economy, close the Central Bank to end inflation and cut public spending. Those were the axes of his campaign.
Milei has defined his speech as libertarian and anarcho-capitalist and has promised “a limited government, which strictly complies with the commitments it has made, respect for private property and free trade.”
With his constant statements against the “parasitic and stupid political caste [ladrona]”, Milei convinced more than half of Argentines, a large part of them young voters.
“I am excited because the politicians’ job (scam) is over, they are going to start using dollars, and the country is going to improve much more,” Nicolás Fernández, a 19-year-old student who participated, told the AP agency. on the Sunday of the street celebrations for Milei’s triumph.
“He is the only politician, so to speak, who delivers what he promises. He already promised his salary and donated it, so that is an example,” added the young man, in reference to the promise fulfilled by Milei to raffle among his followers the salary he receives in Congress, where he has been a deputy since 2021.
A street vendor offers dolls representing Javier Milei with a chainsaw during the closing of his electoral campaign in Córdoba, Argentina, on November 16, 2023. (Photo by Diego Lima / AFP).
Will Milei carry out all his promises, including the most radical ones? Javier Casabal, fixed income strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero, told the AP that it is necessary to wait for their announcements to see “if they move more towards moderation, to know at what speed we will get rid of the peso, at what speed their recovery plan can advance. dollarization.” One of the problems in carrying out dollarization is the lack of foreign currency in the country, economists have warned.
Furthermore, it must be taken into account that in Congress Milei’s party has only 38 of 257 national deputies and 7 of 72 senators, so it will have to seek alliances and strengthen the one it already has with the center-right.
Patricia Bullrich and Mauricio Macri, from Together for Change, supported Javier Milei. (JUAN MABROMATA / AFP).
The alliance with Bullrich and Macri
After the first round on October 22, Javier Milei received the important support of Together for Change (center-right), whose candidate, Patricia Bullrich, placed third. Mauricio Macri joined Bullrich, and the three formed the so-called Acassuso Pact.
In the first round, Massa surprisingly took 7 points ahead of Milei.
The Peronist obtained 9.6 million votes, against 7.9 million for Milei and 6.2 million for Bullrich.
But in the second round, Milei turned everything around, getting 14.4 million (6.5 million more) and Massa 11.4 million (only 1.8 million more).
So, the experts explain, most of Bullrich’s votes went without a problem to Milei.
The Clarín newspaper explained the fundamental role that Macri played in endorsing votes for Milei. He said that when the former president decided to publicly seal his support for the libertarian, he guaranteed that the votes of Together for Change would go to him.
That alliance also had a political cost for Macri. Argentina’s opposition coalition currently has 94 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 21 in the Senate, but not all of them will continue under the former president’s guidelines.
The Acassuso Pact generated discontent among the Radical Civic Union and the Civic Coalition.
“At least 35 deputies will be able to join Milei’s almost automatic support, but that is not enough and it will have to be negotiated with the radical opposition wing, although these types of majorities will be recalculated in each discussion,” he told the EFE agency. Leandro Domínguez, director of political analysis of the Directorio Legislativo foundation.
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