Kenya has formally entered the October–December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service warning of wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country and releasing county-specific dates for the onset of the rains. Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki stated that rains had started in parts of 24 counties, spanning the Coast, western Kenya, and the Rift Valley regions, and would continue spreading to other areas.
The upcoming transition follows forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation indicating that strengthening El Niño conditions will coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole during the September–November period. Muriuki cautioned residents against treating El Niño as the sole determinant of rainfall, noting that rainfall is governed by multiple climate systems.
Regional Onset Timelines and County Distribution
According to the meteorological authority, the remaining counties will receive the rains next week or the following week. Turkana and Samburu are expected to be the last to experience the onset in the third or fourth week of October.
Rains have already started in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Narok. The Coast counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, and Kilifi, as well as the Tana Delta, are also experiencing the onset.
In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, rains are expected to begin in the first or second week of October. Much of central Kenya and Ukambani, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui, and Makueni, are expected to receive the rains next week or the week after. Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and inland parts of Tana River are also included.
Muriuki urged farmers to rely on detailed forecasts issued by county meteorological officials, emphasizing that the onset and intensity of the rains would vary across regions. “County-specific weekly and monthly forecasts are available from the offices of respective county directors of Meteorological Services,” Muriuki said.
Agricultural Impacts and Excessive Rainfall Warnings
The meteorological agency said above-average rainfall could improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting, regenerate pasture, and improve water availability for livestock. However, it warned that excessive rainfall could cause waterlogging, crop diseases, disruption of farm operations, and difficulties transporting agricultural produce.
The agency expects particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern Kenya, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, and Wajir. Other areas expected to receive above-average rainfall include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru, and Narok.
Muriuki said temperatures would also remain warmer than average across the country. Despite the wider wetter-than-normal outlook, Turkana and Samburu are expected to record poor to fair rainfall.
Duration and Safety Advisories
The rains are expected to continue into January in many central, western, and eastern counties. In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, the season is expected to end in the first or second week of December.
The Met warned of possible flooding, waterlogging, and landslides, advising residents in low-lying areas and near rivers to take the forecast seriously.
