“Latest Typhoon News: Typhoon Mahwah Developing in Mariana Islands and Expected to Affect Okinawa – Stay Prepared!”

2023-05-25 04:15:00

2023/05/25 13:15 Weather news

As of 12:00 on May 25 (Thursday), a very strong Typhoon Mahwah developed in the Mariana Islands, with a central pressure of 920hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55m/s. A clear “eye of the typhoon” is visible in the satellite image.

Next week, we will move south of Okinawa, and part of Okinawa will enter the storm zone, and there is a possibility that it will be affected by wind, rain, high waves, etc., so early preparation is necessary.

Since it is still difficult to identify the course after that, please pay attention to future typhoon information.

▼ Typhoon No. 2 Thursday, May 25, 12:00
Central location Mariana Islands
Size class //
strength class ferocious
Move Northwest West 10 km/h
Central air pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed 55 m/s (near the center)
The maximum instantaneous wind speed is 75 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

In Okinawa, it will be a big deal from the weekend

Typhoon No. 2 is expected to move west-northwest until about Tuesday, the 30th, five days from now.

High sea surface temperatures and high winds in the sky create an environment suitable for typhoon development, so the typhoon is expected to intensify further and become a more powerful typhoon. From the 27th (Sat) to the 28th (Sun), when the development peaks, the central pressure is expected to reach 905hPa, the maximum wind speed near the center is 55m/s, and the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to reach 80m/s.

As the force of the typhoon becomes more intense, there is a risk that the seas of Okinawa and Amami will become turbulent from this weekend before the typhoon approaches.

In Okinawa, the sea has already opened and it is a season where you can swim in the sea, but it seems better to refrain from leisure activities at the sea this weekend.

World Meteorological Agency Forecasts

Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, it can be said that the accuracy of the forecast is high with almost no prediction error up to the point south of Okinawa, but the error increases rapidly after that. The movement of the typhoon is expected to change depending on the strength of the high pressure and the movement of the troughs in the upper atmosphere.

As the date approaches, it is expected that the error will decrease and the forecast will be fixed, so please continue to obtain new information from time to time.
» Pinpoint Weekly Weather Forecast

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 5 days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Miyakojima region 11 %
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island 19 %
Yonaguni Island 15 %
» Rain cloud radar typhoon mode

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April, and it was the first time in about a month that a typhoon had occurred.

The average number of typhoons in May is 1.0, which is about the same level as in December. As the number of typhoons peaks in August, the number of typhoons will begin to increase, so it would be a good idea to prepare for typhoons as soon as possible.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 2’s name “Mawar” was proposed by Malaysia and is derived from the Malay word for “rose”.

Reference materials, etc.

Meteorological Satellite Visible Image: NICT-National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Himawari Real-Time Web

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