Mr. Watan Jitsomnuek, Director of Strategic Analysis Department, Pie Securities (PI), told Nation Online that this week investors around the world will give the most weight toUS inflation Know the official results at 8:30 p.m. on February 14, Thailand time. Bloomberg estimates it at 6.2%YoY, if announced, lower than market expectations, viewed as a short-term positive factor for the stock market. Because at present, it is considered that the world stock market Price In has already eased inflation to a certain level. But if it is higher than the market estimate, it will be a factor to put pressure on the stock market.
We note that for US inflation, historical data suggests that if the S&P500 returns negative three days before the inflation announcement, there is a possibility that US inflation will exceed market estimates.
If evaluating the return of the S&P500 for the past 3 working days, the return is -1.7%, it may be assessed that US inflation is at risk of being higher than the market’s assessment. which is a factor that pressures the stock market
Next track US retail sales are due to be reported on Wednesday. Bloomberg forecasts grew 1.7%MoM and Thursday with PPI or Producer Price Index, Bloomberg estimates, at 0.4%MoM.
Domestically, the 4Q22 GDP report is scheduled for Friday. Bloomberg estimates at 3.6%YoY, 0.6%QoQ. If the report exceeds market estimates, it will be psychologically positive for the stock market. Others, follow the earnings report of listed companies in 4Q22 that will be gradually announced.
However, this week, the SET INDEX is estimated to move within a range of 1,650-1,675 points. The market upside is expected to be limited as positive factors have already been recognized. While inflation will return to be a depressing factor or a factor that the market pays attention to once again. Reflected through the rise in 2- and 10-year government bond yields.
At the same time, foreign investors continued net selling along with Strategic Short TFEX Focusing on Safety Stocks Defensive – Domestic Play Top Pick ADVANC (TP 236) CPALL (TP 72) BDMS (TP 34) RATCH (TP 55).