Friends from the mainland are having fun in the midst of suffering, and they call the previous diagnosis of the new crown “Yang Guo”, the recovery from the diagnosis “Yang Kang”, and the re-diagnosis after the diagnosis is called “Wang Chongyang”. I believe everyone is likely to be “Wang Chongyang” in the future.
The SAR government announced the relaxation of a number of epidemic prevention measures, including the cancellation of all social distance measures, the cancellation of the restriction order, the cancellation of the quarantine order, no longer defining close contacts, and only maintaining the mask order. Hong Kong is on the way to full recovery.
Last week, I had a meal with friends. There were five people in a table, four of whom had been infected, and one was temporarily spared. The non-infection rate of this table was only 20%. Although this is not a scientific statistic, the general feeling is that more than 70% of Hong Kong should be infected, and some people may be asymptomatic infections.
I said to my friends who have never been infected, I am afraid you will be infected within a year. Not only that, the four of us on the same stage who have been infected have a high chance of being infected again within three years. In the end, everyone has to practice “Nine Suns” (infected more than nine times). All of this has a scientific basis.
First, infection cannot be avoided. The transmission rate of the new crown is extremely high. The mainland and Hong Kong have fully relaxed the epidemic control measures one after another. The chance of being infected is quite high. The rest of the people who do not feel infected may also be asymptomatic.
Second, repeated infection cannot be avoided. There are clear data showing the probability of superinfection. According to the US “New Yorker” report, a study in Serbia showed that the number of people re-infected will rise slowly and steadily in the 20 months after the spread of the new crown. Six months after the spread of the new crown, about 1 percent of people were reinfected; 12 months later, 5 percent were reinfected; after 18 months, 20 percent secondary infection. Twenty-four months after the Omicron outbreak, the reinfection rate soared, with 1 percent of patients hospitalized and 0.1 percent dead, and the Omicron reinfection rate was ten times that of the Delta strain.
This figure implicitly corresponds to that of Hong Kong. The Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong broke out at the beginning of this year. Around May this year, Hong Kong experts said that the reinfection rate was about 1%. By November, the reinfection rate was 4.4%, which is very close to the Serbian research figure.
A brief summary, three to six months after the diagnosis of the new crown, the antibody level is very high, and it is difficult to re-infect. After that, as the antibody declines, the chance of reinfection continues to rise. Twelve months after the diagnosis, 5% of people will be re-diagnosed, that is, one in 20 people, the number is not high, but one and a half years after the diagnosis, the re-infection rate will soar to 100%. Twenty. But experts say secondary infections are generally milder.
Third, it is inevitable that there will be many “Double Ninth Festivals” in life. The new crown is a coronavirus. “Natural Science” once pointed out that a decades-long follow-up survey found that within six months after being infected with several coronaviruses, re-infection may occur, but the median time for re-infection is about three years. Studies indicate that we can be infected with the coronavirus ten or more times in our lifetime. The new crown is also a coronavirus. It is estimated that the situation is similar. It is not an exaggeration to say that you practice “Nine Suns”.
Fourth, the best way to prevent reinfection is vaccination. Six months after the diagnosis and recovery, experts still recommend vaccination against the new crown. The best protection is to get a different type of vaccine from the one you have had before. Hong Kong currently has inactivated vaccines (Kexing) and mRNA (Fubitai) that can be used as heterologous vaccination options, and it is better to have more choices. It is suggested that the SAR government discuss with the mainland to introduce inhaled adenovirus vector vaccine or inhaled influenza virus vector vaccine, because the route of the two existing vaccines in Hong Kong is different, and the inhaled vaccine can better prevent upper respiratory tract infection, which is better heterogeneous selection. If it can be introduced into Hong Kong, it can better prevent secondary infection.
Everyone is the manager of their own health. In an environment where epidemic prevention measures are relaxed, it would be very stupid for you not to get an injection.
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Lu Yongxiong