Włochy są interesujące dla innych państw, w tym Polski, ze względu na lekcje płynące z ich współczesnej historii gospodarczej, jak zauważa główny ekonomista UniCreditu Marco Valli. Valli warns that financial markets often maintain confidence in a government right up until a critical point, without providing clear warnings.
The broader European economy has displayed unexpected resilience, expanding at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the second quarter. Yet that headline figure is heavily distorted by Ireland, where national accounts are under strong influence from the profits of U.S. firms. Once Dublin’s impact is stripped away, the eurozone’s underlying growth rate hovers closer to 1-1.2 proc. annually. While hardly spectacular, this performance was better than could have been expected following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and subsequent energy market disruptions.
Europe’s unexpected shock absorption stems partly from the global investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence. Valli notes that Europe also benefits from this AI-related investment boom.
Germany Shifts Gears While Southern Europe Outpaces the North
For years, Germany neglected investments and reforms. Successive economic shocks were particularly painful for Germany due to its economic growth model. The rise of gas prices in connection with the war in Ukraine, followed by an increase in U.S. tariffs and the reorientation of Chinese exports, further pressured the economy.
Yet under the government of Merz, Berlin has initiated a pivot toward economic policy prioritizing investments in defense and infrastructure. Valli notes that while these will take time to bring a growth dividend, they mark a departure from past neglect. Meanwhile, southern eurozone economies—specifically Spain, Portugal, and Greece—continue expanding faster than their northern counterparts.
This southern resilience is linked to a strong financial injection from the European Union’s NextGenerationEU program. Spain, in particular, utilized these funds more broadly to increase the competitiveness of enterprises and has experienced significant immigration, primarily from Latin America, which bolsters workforce participation and domestic consumer demand.
| Economic Indicator / Metric | Eurozone Average | Italy | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying Annual GDP Growth | 1-1.2 proc. (ex-Ireland) | Sluggish | Outperforming Northern Peers |
| Debt Servicing Costs (% of GDP) | Variable | ponad 4 proc. | Not specified |
| Primary Growth Drivers | AI Investment, Defense | Construction | Enterprise Competitiveness, Labor Supply |
The Italian Cautionary Tale for Warsaw
Italy has the oldest population in the EU, with a median age approaching 50 years. Italy was the largest beneficiary of NextGenerationEU in absolute terms, but unlike Spain’s broad-based modernization, Italian disbursements mainly stimulated activity in the construction sector. Combined with a high reliance on gas and an absence of nuclear power, the Italian industrial base struggled acutely during recent energy shocks.
Italy’s high public debt forces the country to spend more than 4 proc. of its gross domestic product on debt servicing costs. Valli points out that these interest payments limit the funds available for social policy, investments, and education.
For Warsaw, where public debt approaches precautionary thresholds that could force the government into radical fiscal tightening, the Italian precedent offers a warning. A country can approach a critical point without receiving any clear warning from the financial market.
ECB Maintains Posture to Combat Persistent Inflation
Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank maintains its monetary posture. Despite oil price shocks, the ECB has signaled that if inflation remains away from its 2 percent target for a long period, it will react regardless of the causes. Valli supports this approach, stating that the ECB is proceeding as it should.
As demographic contraction occurs—with Poland facing population declines—policymakers in Warsaw face difficult choices. Relying on the peace of investors as proof that fiscal policy is correct is not a viable strategy.
