The conflict in the Middle East has entered a transformed phase over the past three years, defined by shifting regional alliances, economic turbulence, and military aggression that has left more than 74,000 Palestinians dead in Gaza, according to reporting by aljazeera.com.
Israel's Military Response Ends Abraham Accords Trajectory
Before the outbreak of hostilities, United States policy in the region relied heavily on normalising Israel’s presence through diplomatic frameworks like the Abraham Accords. HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute noted in the sourced reporting that Israel’s military response effectively ended that trajectory. Rather than cementing a stable regional order anchored by Washington, the US engaged in a direct conflict with Iran this year, watching as Tehran targeted regional partners and undermined perceptions of the American security umbrella.
Attacks involving drones and missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub, while fires ignited near Dubai airport and at Fujairah’s oil zone. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels moved down the Red Sea coast in September, capturing the port of Mocha and neighboring islands to tighten control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait. These strategic gains compounded disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening critical trade and energy corridors. Hellyer pointed to a resulting loss of confidence in the US as a sufficient security guarantor, prompting regional governments to pursue alternative partnerships, such as the Mecca security pact signed in August by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan.
Hezbollah Buckles as Israel Seizes Syrian Territory
The balance of power has experienced a dramatic reordering alongside this waning faith in traditional security arrangements. Iran’s network of regional allies faced severe setbacks, particularly Hezbollah, whose historical reputation as a deterrent against Israeli operations buckled under sustained military pressure. This deterioration fueled Israeli military campaigns, including ground incursions into Lebanon in October 2024 and March 2026, alongside the seizure of Syrian territory following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in 2024.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, observed that the region has grown even more multi-aligned, increasing the influence of external actors like Turkiye in Syria and China in diplomatic negotiations involving Iran. Vakil noted that Israel has paradoxically emerged as a revisionist power while Tehran has operated more as a status quo power trying to recover lost ground. At the same time, Vakil cautioned that Israel has not demonstrated an ability or willingness to project stability.
Tehran Weaponizes Maritime Chokepoints to Pressure Economies
The confrontation has also weaponized vital maritime chokepoints. Tehran maintains economic pressure on Western economies and regional partners through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, and via Houthi activities near the Bab al-Mandeb. However, the economic fallout has been distributed unevenly. Western nations have largely buffered themselves against severe shocks by utilizing emergency reserves and expanded domestic production, prompting the International Monetary Fund to trim its global growth forecast for 2026 only slightly to 3.1 percent.
In contrast, Gulf energy exporters experienced sharper downward revisions in the same economic assessments, with Saudi growth forecasts dropping to 3.1 percent and Qatar shifting from projected growth to an 8.6 percent contraction. Israeli political economist Shir Hever observed that the West’s diminishing reliance on Gulf hydrocarbons has heightened the extent to which Israel operates as a liability for Washington, complicating assumptions that ongoing crises would automatically compel Gulf states into formal diplomatic alignments with Israel.
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