Military situation in Ukraine
Putin’s tanks are taking risks
03/11/2022 01:11 am
The war in Ukraine is entering its third week: the Russian invading army is bringing death and destruction to the big cities, but so far there have been no major military successes. What are Putin’s generals up to in Ukraine? A look at the current situation map.
According to the Pentagon, the Russian military is trying to surround Ukrainian cities – including the capital Kyiv. “Kharkiv and Chernihiv, Mariupol – we see these efforts to encircle and surround,” said a senior US Defense Department official.
Corresponding troop movements can also be observed around the capital Kyiv. The Russian attacks came from multiple directions, the official said. “So what we’re seeing are these different pushes toward Kyiv.” Similar attempts had previously been made near Chernihiv in the north, near Sumy in the north-east, near Kharkiv in the east and at the besieged city of Mariupol in the south-east on the Sea of Azov. However, according to Washington sources, the Ukrainian capital will probably not be as easy for the Russians to conquer as Kherson was before. Kyiv is much larger than the other cities and is heavily defended, the official said.
The Russian armed forces have continued to advance in the past 24 hours and have gained an estimated five kilometers west of Kyiv, it said. But this is not so much in relation. “As I said, Kyiv is well defended and Ukrainians are putting a lot of energy (…) to protect their capital,” the US official said. At this point in time, no statement can be made as to how long it will be before the Russians might launch a full-scale attack on Kyiv. In some places, the Russian soldiers are still around 15 kilometers from the city center.
The Russian strategy raises plenty of questions among Western military experts. The huge military apparatus seems cumbersome, uncoordinated and not very effective overall. The US institute ISW summarized the Russian attacks in the greater Kyiv area as “isolated, limited and largely unsuccessful”. So far there are no signs of a fundamental reorganization on the Russian side. The Russian attack seems increasingly haphazard.
So far, for example, it looks like the various offensives from the north, east, and south are pursuing several different objectives. The Russian commanders risk weakening the clout of their attacking formations. The individual columns meet with resistance in many places. At the same time, the Russian troops have to cover ever larger areas in their rear. The supply routes are getting longer and the supply situation more difficult.
During the attack from the south, for example, the Russian units invading from Crimea split into several smaller advances. Attacks on the river bridges near Mykolaiv and further north-west have so far been unsuccessful. The front line at Mykolayiv is considered crucial for the protection of the Ukrainian port city of Odessa: Coming from the northwest, the southern Bug runs here, a natural obstacle for attacking armored forces, there are only a few bridges over a length of more than 150 kilometers. With the defensive successes at Mykolaiv and at Vosnesensk, the Ukrainians have so far been able to prevent the Russian Crimean Army from advancing further west across the Bug.
However, the Ukrainian General Staff is also reporting ongoing fighting from several towns north of Cherson. According to sources in Kyiv, the Russian military is trying to push further into the center of the country on the western side of the Dnieper. The situation maps from Western intelligence circles show at least three thin attack peaks, one of which is already approaching the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Dnieper, on the east bank, another Russian offensive is fighting its way towards the city of Zaporizhia, which has a population of around 760,000.
The daring advances of motorized Russian tank columns pose a high risk for the invaders: Without supplies of ammunition, food, fuel and spare parts, Russian combat units cannot possibly remain so deep in enemy territory for long. At the same time, their flanks are getting longer and longer. Ambushes, counterattacks or direct fire from Ukrainian artillery and anti-tank weapons threatened from all sides.
The Ukrainian armed forces could possibly bring the Russian invasion to a standstill, speculate US observers, looking at the information available from the war zone. Meanwhile, airstrikes on major Ukrainian cities continue. And: The Russian army has much larger reserves. Putin’s “special military operation,” as the war of aggression against Ukraine is officially called in Moscow, could result in a longer-lasting, brutal strategy of attrition.