In the 25 years since the return of Hong Kong, the population has grown by nearly 13.7%. During this period, GDP has more than doubled and per capita GDP has also increased by more than 80%. Analyzing the trend of population structure, most of the growth is supported by new immigrants from the mainland. At the same time, there are voices from time to time questioning the competition of new immigrants for resources. Some economists pointed out that population growth is one of the factors of local prosperity, and housewives also generate impetus for the economy. In the past 25 years, the economy has experienced many ups and downs. In the face of the epidemic and geopolitical impact, he believes that the unique advantages of the Hong Kong dollar and the common law judicial system can still be maintained. However, the current immigration anti-epidemic strategy and Sino-US friction may affect the arrival of international talents in Hong Kong. loss of competitiveness.
According to the Census and Statistics Department, the population of Hong Kong was 6.51 million in 1997 and will rise to 7.4 million in 2021, representing an increase of about 900,000, or 13.7%. Comparing the changes in Hong Kong’s GDP over the same period, it has risen from RMB 1.37 trillion in 1997 to RMB 2.87 trillion in 2021, and GDP has more than doubled. In the same period, GDP per capita has also increased from RMB 211,600 to RMB 387,100, an increase of more than RMB 387,100. Eighty percent. During the period, the median monthly salary of Hong Kong people increased from 10,000 yuan in 1997 to 18,800 yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 87%. Population growth has also been accompanied by economic development. Although there have been “storms”, in the 25 years of GDP, only in 1998 (-5.9%), 2009 (-2.5%), 2019 (-1.7%) and 2020 (-6.5%) 4-year record year-on-year contraction.
Observing the composition of the population structure, there were 59,300 “returning BBs” born in 1997, rising to a high level of 80,000 to over 95,000 from 09 to 2012, and then to a level of 50,000 to 60,000. It will drop to 37,000 in 2021. During the period, the number of new lives will be lower than the number of deaths since 2020, and the natural change in the population will drop by 7,600. The decline will expand to 14,200 in 2021. At the same time, the number of OWP holders moved in from 1997 to 2021 was about 1.12 million.
Xu Jiajian, an associate professor at the Department of Economics at Clinson University, said, “I have never seen a place with a declining population but maintaining economic prosperity.” In the early years, most of the new immigrants who came to Hong Kong for reunion were housewives, and taking care of their families also contributed to Hong Kong, but the GDP data at that time did not necessarily reflect that. . Xu Jiajian bluntly said, “I don’t like people who are good, there are no new people, and I don’t have a baby. (The economy) is tricky.” If there is a welfare policy in society, there will be conflicts between obtaining resources and contributing to the economy. If you are productive, children and adults can do it.”
In addition to the wealth created by population growth, Hong Kong, as a financial center, has faced many crises due to external economic impacts over the past 25 years, and it has not been smooth sailing, including the Asian financial turmoil after the handover in 1997, and the “Lehman Debt” in 2008; There is an economic crisis caused by the virus and SARS. Some people suffered a lot and needed government support. However, looking at the number of CSSA recipients over the years shows that the economy is improving most of the time. In 1997, about 282,000 people received CSSA. In 2004, it rose to a high of 542,000 people. After that, the trend declined. Only in 2009 and 2020, there was a slight increase compared with the previous year, and it fell to 306,000 at the end of last year. In terms of unemployment rate, the lowest unemployment rate was recorded in 1997, at 2.2%. In 2003, it rose to the highest level of 7.9%, and then fell year by year to 3.5% in 2008. After rebounding to 5.3% in 2009, from 2011 to 2020, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the unemployment rate remained at a level of 2.8% to 3.4% for the entire population for nearly 10 years. Xu Jiajian said frankly, recalling years of crisis, it is not far-reaching. Taking the unfortunate incidents such as the burning of charcoal in SARS as an example, he pointed out that “there is a sudden shock”, and many people have indeed suffered great losses. However, he pointed out that the relevant measures have also laid the groundwork for high property prices and conflicts between China and Hong Kong in recent years.
China and Hong Kong markets will tend to converge
One of the key points of the return is “one country, two systems”. Xu Jiajian believes that the central government’s role in Hong Kong’s economic involvement in the past 25 years is not important, but more profound policies. In addition to independent travel to help retail tourism, the financial industry is “helped”, but the integration of the two markets is a major factor. The general trend. According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the market value of the Hong Kong stock market has risen from 3.2 trillion yuan to 39.8 trillion yuan on June 27, 2022 in 25 years. In 1997, there were 101 Chinese-funded companies in Hong Kong stocks, with a market value of RMB 520 billion (accounting for 16.3%), and by the end of May 2022, there were 1,370 companies (accounting for 53.4%), with a market value of RMB 29.4 trillion, accounting for 77.6% of the overall. Xu Jiajian said with a smile that many of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index are not traditional Hong Kong companies that are well known to households. Measures such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and Cross-border Wealth Management Connect only accelerate integration. As for CEPA (Mainland and Hong Kong-Macao Relations Establishing Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement), he thinks that he can’t see any practical effect. For example, the measures in it facilitate manufacturers to develop in the Mainland. He pointed out that many of his classmates have gone to the Mainland to do business in the 1990s. In sensitive industries such as film, “it was impossible before, and CEPA was not a good idea.” I don’t think any industry would benefit from it.
Sino-US relations have deteriorated in recent years. Xu Jiajian pointed out that there are many discussions in the West about China’s shortcomings. Hong Kong has experienced 19 years of social events and the “zero policy” in dealing with the epidemic. Hong Kong is not very different from mainland cities, and has lost its advantages of relative internationalization, talent and capital flow. It is necessary to reconsider whether it is necessary to come to Hong Kong, resulting in a decline in Hong Kong’s competitiveness. He mentioned that Hong Kong has its own currency and common law judicial system, which are still advantages that mainland cities do not have. At the same time, the “Hong Kong National Security Law” is a new thing for foreigners, and they need to observe whether it will affect business in Hong Kong. ,build confidence.
Originally published on AM730 https://www.am730.com.hk/Life/Special Issue/Add Millions of One-way Permits to Hong Kong to Support Population Growth-Academics-HKD-Common Law still has advantages, we must focus on attracting talents/326427