According to this ranking, Morocco, with its “B3” rating, is in the Top 3 of African countries that are more resilient to the crisis, behind Botswana (BB1) and tied with Mauritius (B3). This ranking takes into account the Country Rating obtained after analyzing several criteria such as macroeconomic imbalances, the business environment, political stability, the short-term warning indicator and the risks of financing the economy.
In Africa, the picture drawn by Allianz Trade regarding country risk in 2023 is bleak. It describes a high risk of non-payments and business failures in most businesses on the continent, due to the volatility of the international environment. Thus, global economic growth should fall to 2.2% in 2023 (against +3% in 2022), before rebounding to 2.3% in 2024, indicates the credit insurer, which forecasts an increase in inflation to globally, expected at +6.6% in 2023 and +4% in 2024.
To read: Standard & Poor’s: Morocco retains its rating with stable outlook
At the level of the euro zone, hard hit by the global economic crisis, “recession will be narrowly avoided, but Germany should not escape it. With GDP expected to shrink by 0.1% this year, the country is paying a heavy price for the current energy crisis.” This year, France should experience growth of +0.4% (-2.2 points compared to 2022), against +0.3% for Italy (-3.5 points) and +1% for Italy. Spain (-4.5 points). In the euro zone, inflation will remain high, averaging +5.6%.
The Moroccan economy is expected to show annual growth of around +3% in 2023, driven by the recovery of the agricultural sector and the export of agricultural products, phosphates and the automotive industry. According to Allianz Trade, the volume of world trade is expected to fall to +0.9% in 2023 (-2.8 points compared to 2022). In value, world trade should contract by -0.3%, after rising by +9.6% in 2022 due to the acceleration of inflation.