2023-10-21 17:11:45
In a note published this Friday, October 20, the American rating agency Fitch Ratings declared that after an analysis of macroeconomic policies, as well as the support of creditors, a favorable debt structure and the availability of liquidity reserves, decided to maintain Morocco’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) at BB+ with a “stable outlook”.
“Morocco’s ‘BB+’ ratings are supported by a history of sound macroeconomic policies that support resilience to shocks, strong official creditor support, a favorable debt composition and comfortable liquidity reserves. These strengths are opposed development and governance indicators lower than those of its peers, a high budget deficit and public debt, as well as Morocco’s vulnerability to adverse weather conditions.” the agency said.
At the same time, the agency warns Morocco by specifying that these ratings are limited by development and governance indicators which remain low, in addition to the high budget deficit and public debt, but also vulnerability to weather conditions. .
In addition, the institution indicates that the economic impact caused by the Al Haouz earthquake should be limited in 2023, but the resumption of tourism could be impacted, adding that the budget deficit would stand at 5% of GDP in 2023, with a slight improvement in the years to come.
“We assume that the economic impact of the earthquake will be limited in 2023, as the areas do not host key centers of industrial activity such as the automobile manufacturing sector. Although the earthquake could disrupt the recovery somewhat tourism, the sector’s revenues were already higher than the level before the pandemic (8M23: 71.4 billion dirhams; +32.5% over one year).” she said.
“Morocco’s debt is increasing, on the other hand, and is expected to reach 74.1% of GDP by 2025.” she indicated.
Fitch also forecasts GDP growth of 2.7% in 2023, despite its vulnerability, thanks to reconstruction efforts and an improvement in the agricultural season. Notwithstanding the challenges, the credit rating remains stable, ensuring the country’s attractiveness and capacity to manage its debt.
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