Moscow, Putin has chosen Belousov: who is the economist who will manage the war in Ukraine

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A truly surprising choice within a widely expected government reshuffle. If many expected the dismissal of Serghej Shoigu, Vladimir Putin’s most loyal Defense Minister, the arrival in his place of Andrej Belousov, equally close to the Russian president but an established economist, is sensational news. Interpreted with Putin’s desire to entrust the management of the war to competent hands in finding the resources necessary to make it sustainable for the country. For as long as necessary.

War and economy: the two absolute priorities on the agenda of the president, who took action after the inauguration of his fifth mandate in the Kremlin. Intertwined priorities: Putin made this clear last week, telling commanders at the front that success in pursuing the country’s economic and social objectives depends “on your success on the battlefield.” And vice versa: the national economy must be able to support the war effort more effectively. The news announced by the Kremlin, one could therefore say, actually confirms the objective that has guided Putin’s every choice since the beginning of the invasion. And Belousov has always been a supporter of the priority that the state has over business.

Why Belousov himself

Belousov’s choice «makes sense – explains the British analyst and writer Mark Galeotti -. In wartime the Minister of Defense is above all a financial administrator who must ensure that the armed forces receive everything they need.” It is therefore not too strange that the minister is once again a civilian, with no real military experience. As Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, confirmed on Sunday evening, the chief of staff Valery Gherasimov – the general who is in charge of the management of the “special military operation” in Ukraine and reports to the supreme commander, i.e. Putin – will remain in his place. Note, however, that Peskov said “for now.”

Born in Moscow in 1959 and graduated in Economics from Moscow State University, Belousov was active in the community of liberal economists. «A rare breed of economists, competent and state-oriented – says Konstantin Sonin, vice-rector of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow before being forced to emigrate to the USA in 2014 -. What made Belousov unique was that while older generation macroeconomists focused on broader, vaguer scenarios, the Belousov center was crunching numbers. At that time only foreign consultants and younger economists’ centers did this at an appropriate level.’

In 2006 Belousov entered state service, called to the Ministry of Economy as deputy by Gherman Gref, then one of the most prominent liberal economists, now at the helm of Sberbank. Since then, Belousov has never distanced himself from Putin, following him during the period in which Putin became prime minister, while Dmitry Medvedev replaced him as president. He is credited with having predicted the great economic crisis of 2008 three years in advance.