The Interior Minister, Bassam al-Mawlawi, launched a call for municipal elections, yet the readiness of the Ministry of Interior and other groups to participate remains uncertain. Only the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah seem prepared due to their organization and funding. The Lebanese Forces have been actively preparing in their strongholds while Hezbollah can prepare within the remaining two-month period before the elections in the south and Bekaa.
Surprisingly, Mawlawi reversed the order of the stages for the elections, starting with the North and concluding with the South. This decision may have been to satisfy the forces that want elections and to give Hezbollah more time to prepare. The Ministry of Interior has not prepared for the elections on a logistical level, having only revised voter lists. The Ministry will not be able to secure the basic needs for the elections, such as polling station minutes papers. The primary and higher registration committees require 800 judges, and most of them are not available, which will result in a significant problem.
Mawlawi’s call to the electorate is to urge political forces to extend the municipal councils’ law quickly. Securing financing for the elections is an alternative. The Free Patriotic Movement accepted the legislative session’s quorum on the agenda, including the Law of Extension for Local Councils.
Although the electorate’s call for the municipal elections, launched by Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi yesterday, Monday, is only a declaration of intent, and to lift the legal responsibility of the Ministry of Interior for obstructing the elections, the assumption that the elections will take place remains valid. This is in contrast to all the facts that prove the lack of readiness of the Ministry of Interior, parties, civil society, groups for change, and all citizens, by extension, to go to elections, under the current circumstances and lack of time, with the exception of the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Forces began activating its electoral machine some time ago in its strongholds, and Hezbollah can prepare for it within the two-month period remaining for the date of holding elections in its strongholds, that is, the south and the Bekaa. In other words, these two partisan forces, due to organization and financing, are the most prepared to fight the merit, unlike the rest of the Lebanese components, whose financial and logistical capabilities vary, from partial readiness to lack of readiness. This is the case for the Future Movement, which will launch the elections, if they take place, in its strongholds first, i.e. the North, unlike the previous election cycles.
North first!
In the past, it was customary for the municipal elections in the northern governorates to be held in the fourth stage, i.e. on the last Sunday of the election dates, which takes place in four stages. In the 2016 elections, elections were held in Beirut and the Bekaa in the first stage, in Mount Lebanon in the second stage, the south in the third stage, and the north in the fourth stage, and in the 2010 elections, the northern governorates were in the fourth stage. Here, the sources are surprised that Mawlawi made his decision to reverse these stages and launch elections in the northern governorates first, and make the south last. It was decided to invite the electorate in the North on May 7 (the deadline for candidacy starts on April 4 and ends on the 26th), in Mount Lebanon on May 14 (the deadline for candidacy starts on April 12 and ends on May 3), and in Beirut and the Bekaa on May 21 (deadline Candidacy in the Bekaa and Beirut begins on April 19 and ends on May 10), and in the south on May 28 (the deadline for candidacy begins on April 17 and ends on May 22).
The sources add that the failure to start the elections in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley may be just a coincidence or to satisfy two parties: the “forces” that want the elections, and Hezbollah that wants some time to prepare for them. By making the elections of the Bekaa and the South in the last two stages, Mawlawi has satisfied Hezbollah by giving it an opportunity to prepare well for the elections (about two months). On the other hand, Mawlawi gave more time to discuss the fate of the Beirut municipality, in light of the partisan and sectarian dispute over its division into two municipalities. In the worst case, elections can be held in the Bekaa Valley and Beirut postponed to a later date, in case there is reluctance and the Christian forces do not accept to keep the capital with one municipal council. As for the decision to start with the northern governorates, it is due to the absence of Sunni forces objecting to this procedure, in the absence of the Future Movement, which opposes the performance of Mawlawi and his insistence on holding municipal elections, under the current circumstances, especially since the current month of forgetting is all official opportunities that will be at the expense of these two governorates. How to prepare for the elections.
Logistical obstacles
On the logistical level, the Ministry of Interior did not prepare for the elections. Preparing voter lists does not mean that the ministry can conduct elections. Rather, this routine procedure in revising the lists to cross out the deceased and add those who have reached the age of 21 takes place every year, whether there are elections or not, the sources say. She adds that the Ministry of Interior will be unable to secure the simplest things, such as the polling station minutes papers, which require time and money to secure.
According to the sources, there are about 1,100 municipalities in Lebanon, and the number of seats in them is about 12,700, and the elective councils are about 2,500. The number of candidates is usually not less than forty thousand candidates. They need to provide the Ministry of the Interior with 40,000 civil documents, 40,000 criminal records, and the necessary tens of thousands of financial stamps that are not available from the Ministry of Finance. This is related to the fact that the whole month of April is an official holiday, and this is apart from the non-attendance of employees to their workplaces. How can the registration documents be completed in the civil status departments, after which a criminal record request and then the nomination fees be paid, at a time when the simplest transaction in the civil society departments takes at least a month? sources ask.
employees and judges
In the current month of April, the official working days are seven days, and in light of the governors’ unpreparedness logistically, how do candidates submit their documents, if they are able to secure them, in the provincial centers? Has the Ministry of the Interior secured pens, ink, papers, printers, and electricity in the governorates? Sources ask, and they answer in the negative.
The sources add that the most complicated issue of logistics is related to securing about 12,000 employees for the Registry Authority. The Ministry of Interior will send notices to the employees who participated in the parliamentary elections, because lack of time and strikes prevent it from addressing the concerned departments to re-send the employees’ schedules. However, there are no guarantees confirming the participation of these people in the municipal elections, in return for receiving about 8 million pounds, at a time when the gasoline plate amounted to more than two million pounds. The biggest disaster will be in the primary and higher registration committees. The elections need 159 primary registration committees and thirty higher registration committees consisting of 800 judges, and most of them are not available. In the parliamentary elections, when the dollar was about 27 thousand pounds, several problems arose in sorting due to the absence of judges, which reinforces the non-participation of these people, at a time when the dollar amounted to more than one hundred thousand pounds. This is apart from the fact that a large number of judges took leave to work abroad.
Al-Mawlawi’s call to the electorate was not to remove the legal responsibility from his ministry, but rather to urge the political forces to expedite the issuance of the law extending the municipal councils. As for the alternative, it is to secure financing for the elections, which, if they take place, will benefit the two most powerful parties in the equation, that is, the forces and Hezbollah. What prompts the Free Patriotic Movement to accept the quorum for a legislative session on its agenda is the Law of Extension for Local Councils.
In conclusion, the upcoming municipal elections in Lebanon remain clouded with uncertainty and logistical obstacles. While Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi’s announcement of the elections may seem like a step forward, the lack of readiness from parties, civil society groups, and citizens suggests otherwise. Nonetheless, the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah seem to be the most prepared for the elections due to their organization and financing. The decision to start with the northern governorates and make the south the last stage could have been to satisfy these two parties. Moreover, the logistical challenges faced by the ministry of interior make it unlikely to conduct the elections efficiently. These obstacles range from meeting deadlines for submitting registration documents to securing employees and judges for the registration process. However, with financing and an extension on the law for local councils, the elections may still take place, benefiting the two most powerful parties in the process. Regardless, Lebanon continues to grapple with its political and social constructs, highlighting the need for sustainable and long-term solutions.