In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful
And prayers and peace be upon the most honorable of the prophets and messengers, our master Muhammad and his family and all his companions
in the beginning :
Attached to you is the photo report, a video in its new comprehensive and complete dress of all the events and the latest events and news that changed the course of things
What the Fed focuses on:
The focus is all on the developments of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and an effort to further tighten monetary policy by raising the interest rate in order to combat inflation, which fell at a slower pace from 6.5% to 6.4%, higher than expectations that were expected to be 6.2%, as the Fed offers tightening policies from In order to reduce inflation to target inflation to the level of 2%, through achieving a soft recession by raising the unemployment rate.
Markets are reconsidering the Fed’s policies.
The markets began to interact strongly with a sharp rise in the dollar, with a sharp decline in gold and US stock indices, coinciding with the testimony of Jerome Powell before the Senate Economic Committee. Its main title was, “We will continue to tighten the policy as long as the US economy is fine and not affected by raising the interest rate, and here the markets began to price by raising interest by 50 basis points instead of of 25 basis points
But the events of Thursday and Friday changed the course of things, with the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, which proved that the cause of the collapse was the increase in interest rates and the rise in US bond yields, which was reflected in the value of the bonds by declining. Customers Therefore, the regulators seek to find buyers for the bank
Markets began to reconsider the Fed’s expectations regarding monetary policy and interest rate hike
US labor market data
Despite the employment data, which added jobs to the US economy above expectations, the unemployment rate was higher than expectations and the previous reading from 3.4% to 3.6%, which made the markets reconsider the pricing of raising the interest rate from 50 basis points to 25 basis points, which led to a sharp decline. In a sharp rise in with continued losses on the US indices affected by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the collapse of the banking sector
What the markets expect
The markets are carefully awaiting the release of inflation rates, which is reflected in the Consumer Price Index, which will be released next Tuesday, and which will react strongly to it
Where if the numbers are issued higher than expectations, we may witness a strong and violent rise of the US dollar, but if we see the release of numbers less than my expectations, then this is more bleeding in the US dollar and a strong rise in gold, and its rise may be more violent, as it is added in favor of the collapse of the US banking system after the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and fears of A series of other bank collapses such as First Republic, which will have a major role in the decline of US indices, as at the end of last week.
Silicon Valley shares plunged more than 60%.
First Republic shares fell more than 31%
Signature Bank fell more than 21%
Conclusion :
Therefore, we will most likely see more declines in US indices, with an expected rise in gold, with anticipation of the release of inflation data on Tuesday, which the markets will interact strongly with.
I hope that you like the report and are ready to answer your inquiries and opinions
With regards
Dr.. Muhammad Al-Ghobari