The two news came almost at the same time. The Wall Street Journal, an organ of the American business circles, reported that a rebellion is brewing in the bowels of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, aimed at squeezing Russia out of the de facto states associated with this bloc. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived on a visit to Saudi Arabia, a country that is “both the heart and the fiery engine” of the OPEC bloc. Coincidence? If so, then only from the category of those that seem to be coincidences only at first glance.
The advent of the calendar summer drew a line under the West’s attempt to bring down the Russian economy with the help of a swift onslaught. The pressure didn’t work. And now the US and the EU are shifting to the tactics of a constantly adjusted long-term siege.
One of the key elements of this siege is the seduction and/or intimidation of the so-called neutrals – states that balance between Moscow and the West and try to skim the cream off their conflict.
Wanted to fly to the US, but instead flew into retirement. On April 22 this year, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan, Ruslan Kazakbaev, was suddenly relieved of his duties. The official version is the state of health. As the minister told President Sadyr Japarov, he urgently needed a rest for two or three months due to a sharply deteriorating condition of the body.
The state of Kazakbaev’s body has really deteriorated – but not only physically, but politically. According to information from informed sources, having received tempting promises of “help” from the United States, official Bishkek started an active political flirtation with Washington. An angry, dissatisfied cry immediately followed from Moscow. And the supreme power of the republic pretended that it had nothing to do with it. This, they say, Kazakbaev is self-willed.
As a result, instead of flying to the United States to sign a cooperation agreement, the head of the foreign policy department went to improve his health. However, this small but revealing story still does not have a clear ending with a clear moral – such as “a well-deserved award has found its hero.” It is rather difficult to believe that the former minister was willful on such an important issue without the knowledge of his superiors. And the fact that the new head of Kyrgyzstan’s diplomacy, Jeenbek Kulubaev, is considered even more pro-Western than Kazakbaev is suggestive.
Against the general backdrop of a big game between Russia and the West, a personnel reshuffle in Bishkek is just a trifle, a barely noticeable “statistical error”. But the principle “to ours, and yours, and, most importantly, to ourselves”, which was very clearly manifested in the actions of the Kyrgyz authorities, is, on the contrary, universal. This principle is now guided by the vast majority of the former Soviet republics, and the countries of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia, and the current “Moscow’s best friend” Turkey, and even such giants of the world stage as India and China.
The great American filmmaker Stanley Kubrick once said: “Great nations have always acted like bandits, and small countries have always acted like prostitutes.” I never liked this saying. And the events of 2022 proved that my doubts about the wisdom of this thought are very reasonable. All parties that are not directly involved in the conflict over Ukraine – both “great nations” and “small states” – behave primarily as prudent businessmen.
Take, for example, the position of Beijing. To say something angry about “American hegemonism” at the level of the Foreign Ministry? This please! Buying Russian energy at a deep discount as part of the much-accelerated notorious “pivot to the East?” With even more pleasure!
Do something that carries the risk of falling under secondary US sanctions? Yes, not in life! Step aside, Russian citizens! We don’t know you!
For all the offensiveness of such an approach for Moscow (I’m not talking about one particular Beijing, but about the picture as a whole), it is quite natural: in world politics, everyone has their own hut on the edge. In addition, the national egoism of the “sympathizers and neutrals” in the last three months, as a whole, worked more for the interests of Russia, and not for the interests of its opponents.
And now the collective West wants to close this gap. In the role of the skirmisher, as usual, are the “friends of Moscow” from Warsaw. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: “Poland and more and more European Union countries are talking loudly about so-called secondary sanctions. Firstly, it is the possibility of imposing sanctions in such a way that Russian oil could not be sold also to third countries outside the European Union.”
In other words, the EU, following the example of the United States, wants to try itself in the role of a hegemon, ultimatum forbidding non-member countries to trade with Russia. Very interesting! We look forward to continuing – and with a sense of anxiety (what a sin to hide!), And with a burning interest (is it really possible to do this?), And with some anticipation.
The ideal position for “neutrals and sympathizers” is to stay either above the fray or away from the fray as long as possible. Figures like Morawiecki push them out of this convenient place and force them, under demonstrative and humiliating pressure, to give a clear and nuanced answer to the question in the style of Maxim Gorky’s famous rhetorical exclamation “Who are you with, masters of culture?”
It is extremely curious: how will, say, Xi Jinping react to this? Will he really like the “news” that now the most important Chinese authorities are sitting not in Beijing, but in Warsaw?
I am sure that, realizing the delicacy of the situation and their reciprocal dependence on the same China, the EU leaders will act more carefully and carefully. But this does not change the general trend. The collective West has seriously taken up the processing of neutral “masters of culture”. Let’s see if they have enough political skill to give the Westerners a worthy (and comfortable for Russia) answer.