Next six-year term ‘will begin’ with a drop in growth: Treasury

The next sexennium will be released with a decrease in the pace of growth from economy Mexican, reported the Secretariat of Hacienda and Public Credit (SHCP).

When presenting the Pre-Economic Policy Criteria of 2025 to the Congress of the Union, confirmed that in 2024 the country will achieve a performance of 3.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

While, in 2025, during the first year of next governmentnational economic activity will lose certain dynamism and will close with an annualized rate of 3% of GDP.

Treasury explained that the “moderation” in the growth of the country is due to the forecast of a lower performance of the economy of EUwhich affects the exports Mexicans, the arrival of tourists and the entrance of remittances.

In addition to the impact of the “normalization” of the performance of some subsectors of the sector serviceswhich had recorded extraordinary performances after the pandemic of Covid and the decrease of saving accumulated from households.

“The Mexican economy will continue with positive growth, job creation and increases in public and private investment.

“It is estimated that GDP will grow in a range of 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024 and 2% to 3% in 2025.”

— SHCP

Less inflation and more debt

When referring to the inflationthe Ministry of Finance indicated that the level of the prices In Mexico it will close 2024 at 3.8%, a rate lower than the 4.40% reported by the Inegi last February.

For the first year of the new sexenniumanticipated that the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) will touch 3.3%, a level that is already within the annual inflation goal foreseen by the Bank of Mexico of 3%.

In contrast to this last result, the SHCP reported that the debt public of the country, hired by the government federal, will increase from 48.8 to 50.2% of the GDPbetween 2024 and 2025.

Dollar and oil price 2024/2025

The Pre-Criteria of Economic Policy establish the following economic variables:

• Dollar: 17.8 / 18 pesos
• Precio of the Petroleum: 71.3 / 58.4 dollars per barrel
• Production of raw (Pemex): 1 million 852 thousand / 1 million 863 thousand barrels per day