The OECD report also notes that Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, being quite exposed to the cycles of the world economy and the demand directed at them from rich countries, will suffer a severe slowdown next year. next.
Many European countries will fall into recession in 2023 if there are gas supply problems in the coming months, a scenario that could materialize if the 10% reduction in consumption set by the EU is not achieved, and especially if the winter is cold, warns the OECD.
In its interim Outlook report published this Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) explains that if supplies fail to cover needs, economic disturbances will last until 2024 and They will have an impact all over the world.
Even if that black scenario does not occur, the organization has had to revise downwards the projections it made three months ago due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the restrictions due to covid in China, so that the slowdown in the global economy will mean that growth will be limited to 3% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.
If it is compared with the forecasts that the OECD itself had made in December 2021, before the war in Ukraine broke out, that means that next year 2.8 trillion dollars will evaporate, a drop of 2% in economic terms. of purchasing power.
The most affected region is Europe, where before reaching a possible supply problem, the price of gas has already tripled in one year and is practically ten times higher than it had on average in the 2010-2019 period.
Europe on the verge of recession
Taking this into account, and other consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OECD has sharply corrected its estimates of the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone for next year to leave it at 0.3% (1 .3 points less than in June).
In particular for Germany, where a recession of 0.7% is expected (2.7 points less) even if the black scenario is not fulfilled. In the other heavyweights of the eurozone, growth expectations have also been reduced: 0.6% in France, 0.4% in Italy and 1.5% in Spain.
The United Kingdom it will border on recession with the central hypothesis of the OECD (0% growth). Without falling so low, the United States will suffer from this year, with an increase in activity of 1.5% (after 5.7% in 2021), and 0.5% in 2023.
The authors of the report note that Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and South Africabeing quite exposed to the cycles of the world economy and to the demand directed at them from rich countries, they are going to suffer a severe slowdown next year, greater than what had been anticipated three months ago.
Growth rates will thus remain at 0.4% in Argentina (1.5 points less than estimated in June), 0.8% in Brazil (-0.4 points), 1.5% in Mexico ( -0.6) and 1.1% in South Africa (-0.2).
China against the tide
In Chinathe evolution expected is the opposite of that of practically all the other members of the G20, with a severe slowdown this year due to the restrictions imposed by the covid outbreaks and the weakness of the real estate market, which will leave the progression of the GDP by 3.2% (1.2 points less than anticipated in June) after 8.1% in 2021.
Nevertheless, in 2023 there should be a recovery as those restrictions are lifted and thanks to policies in favor of activity, so that growth will rise to 4.7%.
With respect to Russia, the OECD has substantially corrected its projections. He acknowledges that the economic collapse of more than 10% that he had predicted in June will not occur due to the effect of the sanctions, which have not prevented his income from hydrocarbon sales from increasing thanks to the escalation in prices.
However, those sanctions and the war effort will reduce its production by 5.5% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023, according to the current scenario.
Saudi Arabia, big winner
At the other end, Saudi Arabia appears as the big winner in economic terms of this situation among the members of the G20, since with its sales of oil and gas at sky-high prices, its GDP will increase by 9.9% this year and by 6% in 2023.