Oil prices were set for a second consecutive weekly decline as Washington shifted its focus toward blockading Iran, allaying fears of direct military conflict despite ongoing shipping attacks.
Brent and WTI Futures Rise Amid Increasing Inventories
- Brent futures rose 85 cents to $96.67 a barrel on November 13, 2026, while US West Texas Intermediate futures increased 44 cents to $89.18 a barrel, according to RTÉ.
- Both benchmarks were on track for a weekly drop of approximately 2%, following steeper declines of 16% for Brent and 13% for WTI the previous week, as reported by RTÉ.
- US crude and fuel inventories rose on November 12, 2026, driven by softer refined products demand and higher oil imports, based on data from the Energy Information Administration cited by RTÉ.
Shifting Strategy in the US-Iran Conflict
Oil prices spent every day of October above $100 a barrel, eventually reaching a four-year high of $114 on October 30, 2026, as CNN noted. US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war, expressing a preference for economic sanctions and naval blockades over intensified military operations.
“Trump’s indications that further military escalation against Iran may not be necessary have raised expectations that Washington could increasingly rely on economic sanctions and restrictions on oil shipments rather than intensifying military operations,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm, in reporting by RTÉ.
COLUMN: "… The current price of oil seems wrong. It’s either too low because of the risks of the US and Iran escalating the conflict, or too high because Washington and Tehran will sign a deal. Brent trading at around $90 is an oddity…"@Opinion https://t.co/gKhJfUuSza
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war. Concurrently, US-brokered peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials took place in Abu Dhabi, adding further downward pressure on energy markets through broader geopolitical de-escalation hopes.
Geopolitical Risks Influence Maritime Oil Transits and Supply
Despite easing prices, geopolitical risks in key maritime corridors continue to influence market sentiment. Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, said that oil transits averaged 20.7 million barrels per day last week, recovering from 9.8 million barrels per day in March.
To offset Middle Eastern disruptions, oil majors increased output from Latin America and elsewhere, lifting non-Middle Eastern crude flows by 1.5 million barrels per day compared to the prior year, per CNN.
Supply risks remain visible in regional transit choke points. Iran’s military said that four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings, as detailed by RTÉ. On the same day, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi East-West oil pipeline pumping station, a facility in Yanbu, and an Aramco building in Riyadh, according to RTÉ.
“Geopolitical risks remain elevated, and any fresh disruption to oil supplies could quickly reignite upward pressure on prices,” Sachdeva told RTÉ.
Oil markets remain on edge as Middle East tensions persist 🛢️ With Brent trading around $92/bbl, geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence oil prices and freight costs. @Matt Stanley and @Michelle Brouhard explore the fragile US-Iran stalemate, potential paths to… pic.twitter.com/k7ePugH9Rz
| Crude Benchmark | Price on Nov 13, 2026 | Daily Change | Estimated Weekly Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Futures | $96.67 | 85 cents (+0.9%) | Down ~2% |
| US WTI Futures | $89.18 | 44 cents (+0.5%) | Down ~2% |
US Demand Softens as OPEC+ Production Rises
The weakness in crude is reinforced by softening domestic demand indicators in the United States. Official data released on November 12, 2026, by the Energy Information Administration and reported by RTÉ showed that domestic crude and fuel inventories rose due to subdued consumption of refined products and higher import volumes.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ production rose in October, led by increased output from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq despite ongoing export constraints in the Hormuz Strait, according to a Reuters survey cited by The Irish Times.
“Markets are falling on expectations that behind-the-scenes efforts were underway to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and that it was unlikely the Iran war would escalate ahead of the US-China summit the following week,” Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, told CNBC on November 12, 2026.
Official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration were scheduled for release on Thursday, following a one-day delay due to a US national holiday on Wednesday, as reported by CNBC.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
