According to this specialist, the risk of a third so-called “conventional” world war (without nuclear weapons, editor’s note) is greater. “I figure it between 20 and 45%. The real danger is that Russia only sees the rush forward as a solution. Militarization is the raison d’être of the power in place. However, in the current state of things , any reversal seems impossible. The latest strategic elements are not reassuring. The Baltic countries are the most threatened. At the same time, the Kremlin is less irrational than everyone imagines. Before engaging in a conventional war against NATO, he will think twice. Vladimir Putin was the first to be surprised by the dismal performance of his army. He realized that many of his generals were gorging themselves on the backs of the state and lied to it about its real military potential.
An internationalization of the conflict would imply the active participation of other nations: “It will depend mainly on the position adopted by China. The relationship that the latter maintains with Taiwan is similar to that between Russia and Ukraine. However, the Chinese rulers have been able to learn lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They noticed that the possibilities of the Russian army were not as substantial as expected. They also perceived the collective response of Westerners who, in their vast majority, were set to support Ukraine.”
So far, Russia has been rather isolated. “She is used to being solitary and she adapts to it very well. Apart from Belarus, she has no ally”, underlines Nicolas Gosset. “However, it enjoys China’s political and diplomatic support.”
There remains a third option: “It is the most plausible. ‘Neither victory, nor peace’. This means that the hostilities would last for some time yet. Perhaps even beyond 2023. peaks in intensity, but we would be in a permanent state of war. Contrary to what many people believe, wars do not always end in a peace agreement. Just think of the one in Korea. These are not tank deliveries from Europe to the Ukrainians are going to be a game-changer. Ukraine is not just dependent on Western hardware. There is too much determination on both sides for the fight to stop. armament are running at full speed.”
As far as popular approval is concerned, Nicolas Gosset nevertheless considers it to be superior in Ukraine. “The Ukrainian people support their country’s military policy much more than their Russian counterpart. The Russian population is generally apathetic. They do not want to know what is really happening in their neighbour. Many citizens are afraid or consider that this is toxic information. But the share of those who understand that the conflict is not going well is growing.”
Can the situation therefore settle down with the dismissal of Vladimir Putin? “Inside the country, things are moving, but not yet enough to get there,” judges the expert. “It would be necessary that those around him have more to lose by leaving him in charge than to gain. And if that were to happen, there is little chance that Putin will meet the same fate as Nikita Khrushchev”. The latter had been forced to resign and end his life in almost total isolation. “If Putin is pushed out, it’s most likely to be with a golden parachute.”
In the eyes of Nicolas Gosset, the current head of state still has a few arguments to put forward before considering this eventuality: “His greatest asset lies in the human reservoir of his homeland.” While Ukraine totaled just under 45 million inhabitants in 2021, according to World Bank statistics, the Great Bear had more than 145 million inhabitants on January 1, 2022 according to estimates posted by the Service Federal of Russian State Statistics, Rosstat. “Putin managed to create a political narrative around the invasion of Ukraine. He describes it as a great patriotic war. There are still quite a few followers of the slogan ‘No Putin, no Russia’ (‘No Putin , not from Russia’, Editor’s note)”
His supporters on the battlefields are not about “to find themselves empty-handed” adds the IRSD researcher. “The Russian arsenals remain substantial. Even if it does not have precision equipment, the Soviet army can still rely for a good while on old stocks.”
Be that as it may, Russian aggression has changed the situation on the political spectrum. “The European continent has become an uncertain zone. The relationship of the European Union and the United States with Russia is permanently broken. Vladimir Putin had not imagined such a united European posture in front of him. He expected to divide the European countries,” says the trained political scientist.
And he warns: “if he wins and Westerners flatten themselves in front of him, Vladimir Putin will emerge invigorated from this war”.