2024-03-21 21:19:42

Poll: The Palestinians are more inclined to the two-state solution… and they did not back down from supporting the October attack

A recent opinion poll showed a decline in support for the Hamas movement in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and for the armed action approach, after 5 months of brutal war in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for an increase in the percentage of support for the two-state solution, but without this affecting the percentage of broad popular support for the 7th of May attack. October, which remained unchanged.

According to a poll prepared by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, the majority in the West Bank and Gaza Strip said that the Hamas attack on October 7 was correct (71 percent), compared to 72 percent in December 2023, with a slight decrease in the West Bank. West by 11 percent and an increase in the Gaza Strip by 14 percent. But it is clear from the results that support for the attack does not mean support for “Hamas.” Rather, support comes from another motive. The results showed that three-quarters of Palestinians believe that the attack has placed the Palestinian-Israeli issue at the center of attention, and eliminated years of neglect of the issue at the regional and international levels.

An area damaged after an Israeli military raid in the Jenin refugee camp earlier (AP)

Non-combat zones

The survey was based on personal interviews conducted between March 5 and 10, with 1,580 people, 830 in the West Bank and 750 in the Gaza Strip, in areas where there is no field fighting. The Center re-posed questions to the Palestinians that were asked 3 months ago. To know the shift in Palestinian public opinion during the current war.

Forty-five percent of Palestinians said they support the two-state solution, with 62 percent of Gaza residents compared to 35 percent in a poll conducted in December, and the percentage of support in the West Bank did not change much, from 33 percent to 34 percent.

As for the best way to establish a state and end the occupation, 46 percent of Palestinians believe that “the best way to establish an independent state and end the occupation is armed struggle.” This compares to 63 percent who thought so in a similar poll conducted three months ago. 13 percent of the survey participants answered that the best course of action is peaceful popular resistance.

A Palestinian woman walks with a child amid the destruction caused by the Israeli bombing of Gaza City (Reuters)

Support for “Hamas”

According to the poll, support for Hamas during the war is also still high, as 72 percent said in a poll conducted three months ago that they were satisfied with Hamas’ performance in this war, and now 70 percent say the same thing. Most Palestinians believe that Hamas will win the war, although the percentage has decreased slightly since the previous poll (64 versus 70 percent). The level of belief that Israel will win the war has declined among the residents of the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, 31 percent said that Israel would win, and in the current poll only 19 percent said that. After more than 5 months of war, 59 percent of Palestinians (52 percent of the population of the Gaza Strip) want Hamas to continue ruling the Strip after the end of the war.

Regarding the situation in the Strip, 80 percent of Gaza Strip residents responded that at least one of their family members was injured or killed – an increase of 16 percent from the previous poll. Two-thirds held Israel responsible for this situation, while only 9 percent placed the blame On “Hamas”. 44 percent said they had enough food for a day or two, and 55 percent said they had no food at all.

An archive photo of the trial of Marwan Barghouti in Israel (Reuters)

Marwan Barghouti

At the leadership level, the current poll also shows a significant change in terms of an increase in the level of support for Marwan Barghouti, a leader in the Fatah movement who is imprisoned by Israel. In presidential elections between three, current President Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and Marwan Barghouti, Barghouti wins the majority of those participating in the elections.

In a bilateral competition between Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins more than 60 percent of the participating voters. These results indicate an increase in the percentage of votes for Barghouti among election participants by 11 percent, and a decrease in votes for Haniyeh by 8 points.

On the other hand, if the bilateral competition was between Haniyeh and Abbas, the former would receive 70 percent of the participating voters. It is useful here to point out that the demand for President Abbas’s resignation, although it decreased slightly in the Gaza Strip, increased slightly in the West Bank, thus reaching an unprecedented level.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (dpa)

Weak support for authority

The poll confirms the weakness of popular support for the Palestinian Authority. A percentage of 49 percent (compared to 54 percent three months ago) said that “Hamas” is most worthy of representing and leading the Palestinian people today, while a percentage of 17 percent (compared to 13 percent three months ago) said that “Fatah” The leadership of President Abbas is more deserving, and 29 percent (compared to 26 percent three months ago) believe that both are unworthy of representation and leadership.

The Palestinian public did not see the resignation of Muhammad Shtayyeh’s government as a sign of the beginning of reform, and the vast majority rejects the appointment of Muhammad Mustafa as prime minister. More than 60 percent said they want a national unity government that is not subject to the control of a political party or to the control of President Abbas. Two-thirds of the public also said that the Palestinian Authority is a burden on the Palestinian people, and the majority says that it supports its dissolution.

A majority of 65 percent (compared to 68 percent three months ago) believes that the Palestinian Authority has become a burden on the Palestinian people, and only 27 percent (compared to 28 percent three months ago) believe that it is an achievement for the Palestinian people. Six months ago, 62 percent said that power was a burden, and 35 percent said it was an achievement.

Israeli soldiers on the Gaza Strip border (AFP)

Back to negotiations

Regarding the return to negotiations with Israel, it was possible to see the extent of support and opposition to the negotiations. The percentage of support for this return to negotiations reached 38 percent (46 percent in the Gaza Strip, and 33 percent in the West Bank).

When asked about the most pressing problem facing Palestinians today, the largest percentage (66 percent in the Gaza Strip, 50 percent in the West Bank) said that it is the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip.

A percentage of 23 percent said it is the Israeli occupation, a percentage of 8 percent said it is corruption, a percentage of 6 percent said it is unemployment, and a percentage of 5 percent said it is the division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, 51 percent (42 percent in the West Bank and 64 percent in the Gaza Strip) said it was the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and 32 percent said it was the Israeli occupation.

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