Near Sergio Massa they are silent. “Until tomorrow’s wheel ends [por hoy]don’t even look at the topic “, They exaggerate about the exchange scheme that the Minister of Economy has in mind for the countryside. It will be a patch, not a definitive solution for the economy’s main problem, which is the exchange rate gap. and, its consequence, the scarcity of reserves. Later, they know in the team that the Tigrense leads, it will be time for shock if Cristina Kirchner enables it.
Without anchors, devaluation –despite Gabriel Rubinstein’s old report– does not appear as an option, at least not this September 1st. Massa believes that the shift in the exchange rate suddenly and without anchors generates income transfers in the value chains and general impoverishment. In the medium term, that option is more hazy.
The Central Bank (BCRA) is coming off a “summer” of reserve accumulation, but its net holdings are still poor. Opposition economists believe there should be an imminent decision to change the climate. They say the option will be a patch.
Before the current exchange rate scenario, Economy had already let it be known that it would improve the exchange rate to the countryside to encourage the sale of producers and the arrival of more dollars. That definition calmed “free dollars” for a while. Seeing the current context -the “summer”- in the Massa team they would have preferred not to promise anything. But now the idea that the Rubinstein report will be devalued or that a more convenient scheme for the sector will appear has begun to contaminate expectations. The delay on that decision will only generate more nervousness about the gap. In Economy they know it.
The new scheme – like Miguel Pesce’s limited soybean dollar – will have short-term benefits. But buying time is a parenthesis to rebuild anchors and evaluate medium-term shocks. Those times will have to combine with the end of the purchase of energy –which is already over–, an outbreak of confidence that contains the financial dollars and, of course, the electoral calendar.
Massa received many projects and has been evaluating the pros and cons for a long time. Last week he used it to limit imports and over the weekend to contest the at least four proposals that arrived (cereal companies, producers, the Rosario Stock Exchange and collectors), they said. Along the way, he adds limited options to his “dollar factory.” They are usually low-cost fiscal schemes because, at the end of the day, you have to meet the IMF next week.
Among the possibilities for the patch is the so-called Refinoplus bis, which would imply recognizing a 30% improvement in the price to producers through the issuance of a tax credit certificate applicable to the payment of soybean retentions for 30%. The certificate is triggered by each primary settlement of grains that each producer issues during September and is sold to cereal companies. The pro: it’s simple and you don’t need a law. The against: hit the collection (unless the bonus is charged in 2023).
The cereal companies promote an exchange rate of $200, but this requires changing the law that governs the MULC and the largest currency, in turn, would require a new absorption of pesos through rates (exchange of activity for dollars). The BCRA prefers that Massa’s temporary solution be fiscal. All possibilities are a short blanket – they affect other variables – and all have limited benefit. “I will not solve until tomorrow [por hoy] finish the wheel ”, they say that says, mysterious, Massa.