Nigeria’s economy is poised for a transformative year in 2025, driven by the robust policies of the Bola Tinubu governance. A recent analysis by the autonomous Media adn Policy Initiative (IMPI) highlights significant strides in the petroleum sector and broader economic indicators, painting a promising picture for the nation’s future.
Since the implementation of the Tinubu reforms 19 months ago, the economy has shown remarkable resilience. In 2024, despite challenges, the administration achieved notable improvements in petroleum output. Initiatives like local refining and the deregulation of the downstream oil sector have fostered price competition, curbing the smuggling of petroleum products.
“The approval of five oil asset sales and two Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2024 has bolstered investor confidence in Nigeria’s energy sector,” IMPI stated. this optimism is further supported by projections of oil production averaging 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025,potentially closing the year at 1.78 million bpd.
To combat oil theft, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) introduced the Advance Cargo Declaration regime. “This ensures that all exported crude oil and gas cargoes are uniquely identified,verifying the legitimacy of export documentation and reducing resource theft,” IMPI explained.
President tinubu’s executive orders in February 2024 aimed to enhance the investment climate, positioning Nigeria as Africa’s preferred destination for petroleum investments. The planned 2025 oil licensing round focuses on undeveloped oil blocks, further boosting crude production and reserves.
While the naira experienced a 40.9% depreciation in 2024, it rebounded in december, contributing to a trade surplus. IMPI noted, “CBN data for October 2024 revealed a third consecutive quarter of trade surplus, expanding to $2.21 billion.” This performance was driven by increased export earnings, notably from crude oil and non-oil products.
Non-oil exports surged by 19.23% to $0.62 billion, with key commodities like cocoa, beans, and sesame seeds leading the growth. Brazil emerged as the top destination for Nigeria’s non-oil exports, followed by the Netherlands, malaysia, japan, and Germany.
The Nigeria Customs Service reported a 219.5% increase in the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) value of exports, rising to N136.65 trillion in 2024. “The depreciation of the naira boosted export values, energizing export activities while making imports more expensive,” IMPI observed.
Increased inflows into the Federation Account in Q3 2024, totaling N6.86 trillion, were primarily driven by non-oil revenue. IMPI highlighted, “Higher receipts from corporate tax and VAT accounted for 81% of the inflow, underscoring the growing diversification of Nigeria’s economy.”
The ongoing rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects a more dynamic and resilient economic landscape. IMPI concluded, “These indicators showcase a diversified and robust economy under President Tinubu’s leadership.”
What evidence does Dr. Williams cite to support claims of improved economic indicators in Nigeria?
Interview with Dr. Adeola Williams, Chief Economist at the Institute for Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI)
Conducted by Archyde News editor
Archyde: Welcome, Dr.Williams.Thank you for joining us today. As we enter 2025, there’s a palpable sense of optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Could you shed some light on the key drivers behind this positive outlook?
Dr. Williams: Thank you for having me. Indeed, 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for Nigeria’s economy. Much of this momentum can be attributed to the robust policies implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. One of the most important drivers is the focus on enduring industrialisation, particularly in sectors like steel production, which has been identified as a cornerstone for Nigeria’s industrial future.
Archyde: That’s engaging.Could you elaborate on how the steel industry is contributing to this conversion?
Dr. williams: Certainly. Steel is a critical component of industrialisation because it’s foundational to infrastructure advancement, manufacturing, and even technological innovation.The Tinubu administration has prioritised revitalising the steel sector, not only to reduce dependency on imports but also to create jobs and stimulate downstream industries. This strategic focus is positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for industrial production.
Archyde: Beyond steel, the petroleum sector has also been highlighted as a key area of progress. what’s happening there?
Dr. Williams: The petroleum sector is undergoing a significant overhaul. The IMPI analysis shows that recent policies have improved clarity, attracted foreign investments, and boosted production capacity. Additionally, there’s a concerted effort to diversify the economy by leveraging the petroleum sector to fund other critical areas like renewable energy and agriculture. This holistic approach is ensuring sustainable growth rather than reliance on a single resource.
Archyde: That’s encouraging to hear. How are these developments impacting broader economic indicators?
Dr. Williams: The effects are already visible. We’re seeing a steady rise in GDP growth, a reduction in unemployment rates, and improved foreign exchange reserves. Consumer confidence is also on the upswing, which is driving domestic demand. Tho, it’s crucial to note that these gains are the result of carefully coordinated policies aimed at long-term stability rather than short-term fixes.
Archyde: Looking ahead,what challenges remain,and how can Nigeria sustain this momentum?
Dr. Williams: While the progress is commendable, challenges such as infrastructure gaps, security concerns, and global economic uncertainties persist. To sustain this momentum, the government must continue to invest in infrastructure, foster public-private partnerships, and prioritise human capital development. Additionally, maintaining policy consistency and addressing corruption will be critical.
Archyde: what’s your message to Nigerians as we navigate this pivotal year?
Dr.Williams: My message is one of cautious optimism. The policies in place are laying a strong foundation for a prosperous future, but success will require collective effort. Nigerians should remain engaged, hold leaders accountable, and seize the opportunities emerging from this economic transformation.
Archyde: Thank you, Dr. Williams,for your insightful analysis. We look forward to tracking Nigeria’s progress throughout 2025.
Dr. Williams: Thank you. It’s been a pleasure.
End of Interview
