2023-08-05 22:04:38
The President of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, also President of ECOWAS, on July 30, 2023 in Abuja. KOLA SULAIMON / AFP
Voices are rising in Nigeria, even in the Senate, to ask President Bola Tinubu, at the head of the West African bloc, to reconsider his possible military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States ( ECOWAS) in Niger against the putschists, Saturday August 5.
Parliamentarians and political leaders of the most populous country in Africa have expressed their concerns as the end of the ultimatum issued by ECOWAS to the putschists draws near.
On July 30, shortly after the coup that overthrew elected President Mohamed Bazoum, the West African bloc gave the junta seven days, until Sunday evening, to restore him to office. While claiming to favor the diplomatic route, they had indicated that in the event of failure of the negotiations, the use of force was not to be excluded.
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The pressure was further heightened on Friday when the ECOWAS chiefs of staff, who had been meeting for three days in Abuja, announced that they had “defined the contours” of this “possible military intervention”.
Nothing has filtered through this action plan, but it’s a safe bet that neighboring Nigeria, the continent’s leading economy and strong in its population with 215 million inhabitants, would be the leading contributor in financial, human and logistics. It is moreover its president, Bola Tinubu, who, in his capacity as president of ECOWAS, is the bearer of this ultimatum.
Disagreements between the presidency and the senate
On Saturday afternoon, the Nigerian Senate met behind closed doors to discuss the situation in Niger, then called on President Tinubu to “encourage other ECOWAS leaders to strengthen the political and diplomatic option”according to a statement by Senate President Godswill Akpabio to the press.
Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Coup d’Etat in Niger: the Nigerian neighbor on the front line against the putschists
Several Nigerian media, quoting senators, claim that during this meeting, the majority of senators expressed their opposition to a military intervention in Niger. According to the Nigerian Constitution, security forces cannot be deployed to fight in a foreign country without the prior approval of the Senate.
The president can however dispense with the agreement of the upper house in the case of a “imminent risk or danger” for national security. He then has seven days, after the start of the fighting, to ask for his authorization.
On Friday evening, senators from the northern regions of Nigeria had warned Abuja and ECOWAS against “recourse to military force without having exhausted all diplomatic channels”which, according to them, would have “serious implications” for the country.
“The victims will be innocent citizens going about their daily business”said the Northern Senators Forum in a statement signed by its spokesperson, Suleiman Kawu Sumaila.
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In the event of an intervention, even Nigeria, whose seven northern states share a 1,500 kilometer border with Niger (Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno), would be “negatively affected”they warned.
“A Useless War”
These seven states have historical commercial and social ties with southern Niger, with which they share cultural, religious and linguistic affinities. The senators also said they were worried that an intervention in Niger would further destabilize these regions, which are extremely poor and already under the yoke of armed groups, and open a new corridor of insecurity with Niger’s neighboring countries, namely Mali, Burkina Faso and Libya.
Read also: Benjamin Augé: “The credibility of Bola Tinubu will depend on what he manages to do in Niger”
These concerns are also shared by Nigeria’s largest coalition of opposition parties, for whom intervention would be “not only useless” more “irresponsible”writes the Coalition of United Political Parties in a press release published on Saturday morning.
“Nigeria cannot afford to waste its dwindling resources and the precious lives of our soldiers on a pointless war”according to this press release signed by one of its spokespersons, Mark Adebayo.
“The security situation in our own country already remains a serious challenge for our soldiers”recalls the coalition, for whom a new front would also have the consequence of “plunging Nigeria’s fragile economy into an even deeper crisis”.
Nigerian security forces are already deployed in large numbers in this country, which is plagued by almost generalized insecurity (criminal gangs in the center and north-west, jihadist groups in the north-east, separatist agitation in the south-east).
Nigeria is also facing a severe economic crisis, which has worsened since the end of May fuel subsidies. This decision by President Tinubu, whose objective is to relaunch long-term investment, quadrupled the price of gasoline and further weighed down the population, almost half of whom already lived in extreme poverty.
On Nigerian social networks, the possibility of an intervention is also widely discussed: some are concerned, for example, about the fate of the 200,000 Nigerian refugees (who fled jihadist violence in Nigeria) settled in Niger, others are worried about an influx of Nigerien refugees to northern Nigeria, already plunged into a very serious humanitarian crisis.
In Algeria, President Tebboune opposes the war
The military intervention in Niger “is a direct threat to Algeria. We categorically refuse any military intervention.”Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said in a television interview with the Algerian press broadcast on the evening of Saturday (August 5th).
He hammered that he “There will be no solution without us (Algeria). We are the first concerned. » Algeria shares nearly a thousand kilometers “of border with Niger, he underlined. “In what situations are the countries that have experienced a military intervention today? »wondered the Algerian head of state, specifying “look where Libya, Syria is”.
Several West African armies such as Senegal have said they are ready to send soldiers, as has Côte d’Ivoire, according to a source close to the Ivorian delegation in Abuja who did not specify the possible number of men mobilized.
“Two countries (Mali and Burkina Faso) are ready to enter the battle (with Niger)”recalled the Algerian president, warning that in the event of a military intervention “the whole Sahel will be set ablaze”.
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