Presidential election in Italy: the fear of a new political crisis

Electric atmosphere in Rome, where we fear a new crisis of government. February 3 will indeed end the seven-year term of Sergio Mattarella. His successor must be elected by Parliament with representatives of the regions. Currently, no political group has sufficient weight to impose a candidate. Coming from the right or the left, the next Italian president will need the support of part of the other side to be elected.

Sergio Mattarella has made the robot portrait of his successor: a personality who will be able to divest himself of any partisan affiliation and take charge of the general interest. One man – at least – corresponds perfectly to these criteria: Mario Draghi, the current head of government. The former governor of the European Central Bank has no political affiliation. He was able to unite around him a government of national unity bringing together all the political sensitivities of the country and to convince the European allies to offer Italy 200 billion euros from the recovery plan over six years.

One year from the end of the legislature, Draghi, if promoted to the Quirinal, the seat of the Presidency of the Republic, could continue to guarantee Italy’s reliability for seven years, regardless of the results of the general elections, scheduled for next year.

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For the first time in Italian history, a prime minister would then leave the government for the presidency, which would pose the problem of forming a new executive. “Can Italy do without a figure of political prestige and operational efficiency like his? This is the argument used to block his election to the Quirinal”, summarizes the professor and former minister socialist Valdo Spini. Some voters are also reluctant to vote for Draghi for less noble reasons. They fear that a new government crisis will ensue and early legislative elections, where they would lose their seats for sure. Especially at the Five Star Movement, which is losing momentum.

Caliph instead of Caliph

On the other hand, the great political leaders could find an interest in electing Draghi. Because they believed in it from the start, like the Democrat Enrico Letta [par ailleurs membre du think tank de L’Express], or because they would in return negotiate a good place in a reshuffled government, such as the legislator Salvini or his Fratelli d’Italia ally Giorgia Meloni, who would be seen as a caliph instead of a caliph. Even Giuseppe Conte could gain the legitimacy he lacks at the head of the 5 Stars. But the leaders face many dissonant voices in their formations.

It is in this cacophony that the candidacy of the indestructible Silvio Berlusconi could be taken seriously. At 84, the former Prime Minister has served his sentence for tax evasion and no longer holds – as far as we know – evenings flowers. He campaigned, obtained the formal support of his allies on the right Salvini and Meloni, and dreams of occupying the supreme office. Howls from the left and great discomfort on the right, where Berlusconi does not only have friends. In the center, Matteo Renzi plays informed observers: “We see that Berlusconi’s dream of Quirinal does not have sufficient votes. Italy needs a name of prestige in the homeland and abroad.” It had been ten years since Berlusconi had occupied so much political life. “I’m not sure that behind his candidacy isn’t hiding another intention. Those who know him better than I tell me that he really believes in it. He can say to himself: ‘I’ll give it a shot. If it turns out badly , I retire and I play on another register, that of the kingmaker'”, says political scientist Roberto D’Alimonte, for whom “Berlusconi will not go to the trouble when he realizes that he misses him votes. He may end up backing Draghi as he withdraws.”

An “emergency situation”

From right to left, a good dozen other candidates were considered. None seems to have brought together the parties present in the government of national salvation. To the point that some are leaning towards an ad minima solution with the extension of the mandate of Sergio Mattarella, 80, even if he has publicly announced his wish to retire.

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From this Monday, the electors will vote by secret ballot, by a two-thirds majority for the first three ballots, and by an absolute majority thereafter. Without prior agreement, the case can last for days. However, to move forward with the reforms required by the European recovery plan, Italy cannot afford to have a badly elected president and a pitched battle between the parties. “In 1992, recalls Valdo Spini, the election seemed very difficult, ballot after ballot, and then there was the tragedy of the assassination of Judge Falcone and in 24 hours we decided to elect the President of the Chamber MPs. The context today is very different, but we are also in an emergency situation.” A health, social and economic emergency, after three years of Covid.