2023-11-01 14:25:30
Up compared to September, job creation in the private sector is, however, less significant than analysts’ forecasts.
The private sector created 113,000 jobs in October, up compared to September, while salary increases continue, but at a slower pace, according to the monthly ADP/Stanford Lab survey published Wednesday. This is more than the 89,000 jobs created by the private sector in September, but less than the 130,000 which was expected by analysts, according to the Market Watch consensus.
Hiring was not driven by a particular sector, underlines ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
Wages, which had increased sharply two years due to a labor shortage, helping to fuel inflation, continued to rise, but much less strongly, since the rate of increase is the weakest since the end of 2021 , +5.7% for those who kept the same job, +8.4% for those who changed.
“The large post-pandemic wage increases appear to be behind us,” commented Nela Richardson.
The unemployment rate should remain stable at 3.8%
She specifies that “overall, the October figures depict a well-balanced employment situation. And even if the labor market has slowed, this is still enough to support strong consumer spending.”
The official figures for October will be published on Friday, and should show a clear slowdown in job creation, expected to be half as high as in September, at 175,000. The unemployment rate should remain stable at 3.8%.
The American central bank (Fed) will conclude Wednesday noon its meeting, and should maintain its rates at their current level, to avoid causing economic activity to slow down too much. This could, in fact, hurt employment, or even push the United States into recession.
“We expect the pace (of job creation) to moderate due to the lagged and cumulative effects of monetary policy, which are expected to weigh on demand and hiring in the future,” commented Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics.
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