If Russian President Vladímir Pútin uses tactical nuclear weapons to achieve victory, a coup may break out in Moscow, and he may be like the former Soviet leader Khrushchev (Никита Хрущёв) was ousted. Photo: Dazhi Image/Archyde.com (file photo)
Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine, which began on February 24, has so far become a protracted war. According to predictions by officials from the United States and Western countries, Russian President Vladímir Pútin may officially declare war on Ukraine on the 9th, the “Victory Day” when the former Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany, in order to fully mobilize the reserve force. The analysis also said that Russia may announce the annexation of lands such as Luhansk, Donetsk or Kherson in eastern Ukraine on the same day, or declare complete control of the strategically located southeastern port. City of Mariupol. However, if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons to achieve victory, a coup may break out in Moscow, and he may be ousted like former Soviet leader Nikolai Kruschev, said Gary Otti, a well-known British scholar of Russian studies.
According to a report by CNN on the 2nd, Western officials have begun to pay attention to a possibility that Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine on the 9th, which will allow Russia to mobilize reserve forces and fully mobilize to conquer Ukraine. East and South. May 9 is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating the Soviet Union’s 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany. Western officials have long believed that Putin would use the symbolism and propaganda value of the day to announce a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities, or both. So far, Russian officials have insisted the conflict is only a “special military operation” aimed at “de-navigation”.
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last week that Putin would try to move away from the “special operations” talk, arguing that “he may declare on this big day in May ‘We are at war with the Nazis of the world and we need a big Mobilize Russia on a large scale.” Analysts believe that a formal declaration of war on May 9 will inspire Russians and increase public support for the invasion. According to Russian law, the move would allow Putin to mobilize the reserve force and call up more troops. Several officials believe that Russia’s military is increasingly short and urgently needs more people to go to the battlefield. At least 10,000 soldiers have been killed on the battlefield more than two months after the Russian invasion, according to estimates by Western and Ukrainian officials.
Putin may also announce on May 9 the annexation of the separate territories of Luhansk and Donnetsk in eastern Ukraine, a major advance in the southern strategic city of Odesa, or complete control of the southern port city of Maripo. The report continued, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Michael Carpenter said on the 2nd that the United States has a highly credible intelligence report that Russia will “sometime in mid-May”. Attempt to annex Luhansk and Donnetsk. There are also signs that Russia may plan to announce the annexation of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Kherson. The report also said that Russia is believed to use these “people’s republic” regions to hold “fake referendums” to reach annexation plans.
In this regard, Mark Galeotti, a professor at University College London (University College London) who has written Putin’s biography, wrote in the “Daily Mail” (Daily Mail) that Putin’s inner circle is shrinking, the risk is also rising. He wrote of reports that senior Kremlin figures were concerned that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a “catastrophic” mistake that could leave Russia “doomed” into years of isolation, “and, terribly, they also warned that Putin might sue for victory in his bid to win. Tactical nuclear weapons. Whether nationalists or liberals, hawks or doves, civilians or military officers, there are such concerns.”
Guerreotti said there were few people left for Putin to listen to. One of them was Nikolai Patrushev, secretary-general of the Federal Security Council, a former head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) who was belligerent. To the extent that Putin looks like a pacifist. As for Putin’s other advisers and ministers, most of them are not Putinists. “Indeed, there is no such thing. For all of them, their priority is to keep their money.” Guerreotti continued. , if enough of them felt alienated and feared enough to be ready to mutiny, a Kremlin coup would no longer be unthinkable.
However, this will require a coalition of senior figures in the military, government and security services. This is what happened 60 years ago, when Khrushchev was toppled after the Cuban missile crisis. Soviet ministers and generals, knowing they could not win a nuclear war with the United States, banded together to depose their leaders. And the pragmatists in the Kremlin knew that a tactical nuclear attack would be a bigger disaster than the initial invasion. NATO (NATO) will be forced to respond, as will China, and all parties will do whatever it takes to end Putin’s regime, “Moscow’s growing dissent may be ready to take the lead against their Leaders acted for their own survival and possibly for the survival of Russia itself.”