2023-08-01 09:00:02
Despite not being one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks in the league, reigning Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes finished the preseason with the most fantasy points of any quarterback — 428.4 after 18 weeks. He led the NFL in passing yards by a wide margin and also threw the most touchdowns of any quarterback. Yes, Mahomes is athletic as a scrambler, but his top finish without a large number of designed runs shows how good the 28-year-old is in both real life and fantasy. But should Mahomes go into the upcoming fantasy season as number 1? Find out in the coming paragraphs.
Before we dive into the rankings for 2023, a little note from me: ranking players before any fantasy draft is a good way to stay on top of things when pressed for time. Even better are tiers, i.e. groups of players who have roughly the same value. They help you to see where the value currently lies in the draft and where you might leave it.
A small example to illustrate: You are “on the clock” and still have not picked a quarterback for your team. There are about four to five quarterbacks left on the board, though, all ranked in the same tier (let’s say Tier 2). The running backs, on the other hand, only have one option from their own tier, behind which there is a massive drop-off in quality.
In this case, it makes more sense to take the running back, even though it might be the third or even fourth on your team, since you can expect a Tier 2 quarterback to still be on the board in the next round is. It’s decisions like this that will help you keep value on the draft board and put together the best possible team.
If you’ve mastered this strategy, you’re now ready for our 2023 NFL Year Quarterback Rankings. Here we go:
Tier 1: The Best of the Best (Elite)
1. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
To be an elite fantasy quarterback in 2023, a player must not only have high-end passing skills, but also offer rushing upside on the ground. In my opinion, this will only apply to three players this coming season: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. I think you can basically categorize the three superstars however you want. Hurts is slightly up on my list because he has the best supporting cast around and delivers the most value as a runner. But would it surprise me if Hurts ended up number 3 behind Allen and Mahomes? No, because the other two dual-threat QBs also check every box for fantasy glory.
Top QBs by Fantasy Points per Dropback:
5. Patrick Mahomes (0.60)
4. Josh Allen (0.64)
3. Lamar Jackson (0.65)
2. Justin Fields (0.70)
1. Jalen Hurts (0.71) @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/0oKOA0gOrp— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) July 25, 2023
Tier 2: High-End-Rusher und High-End-Passer
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Jackson and Burrow just barely made it into the first tier. While Jackson is arguably the closest match to Hurts as a runner, his passing production has dropped enough in the last two years that he’s “only” in Tier 2 of my rankings. Burrow is the first quarterback on my list without significant upside on the ground, but he’s effectively a lock for 4,000+ passing yards and 30+ touchdowns. Lawrence and Herbert could push into Burrows areas in 2023 and are just behind the Bengals star. Fields, on the other hand, led all of the 2022 quarterbacks in rushing attempts, giving him an incredibly high floor.
Tier 3: Weekly Top 12 Contenders
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
10. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
11. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
14. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The first player where I deviate significantly from the consensus board is Anthony Richardson (ADP: QB18). The rookie is likely to start in Week 1 for the Colts and is clearly a huge project as a passer. On the other hand, there’s no doubt that Richardson has incredible potential as a runner. His coach Shane Steichen will maximize Richardson’s strengths right from the start – lots of running play and the occasional big play through the air. The Colts may not have many wins in 2023, but Richardson will be delivering top-12 finishes from the start. I say that’s enough in the end to rank in the top ten signal callers (in fantasy land mind you!). Call it a hot take, call me a homer, but I firmly believe it.
Reminder to draft Anthony Richardson in fantasy! Took all the first team reps today at camp. He’ll be a strong asset cause of his rushing ability but him being a strong passer quicker than anticipate is very possible pic.twitter.com/2RxYR2LaLp
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 28, 2023
Tier 4: Established options with a secure floor
15. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
16. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
17. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
18. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
19. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
While I think far more highly of Richardson than most fantasy experts, these often have Watson higher in their rankings (ADP: QB9). I’m more skeptical. Yes, Watson may not have been at 100 percent form due to his suspension, but it worries me how weak the 27-year-old has been on stable metrics like clean pocket play. That urgently needs to change in 2023 if Watson is to be counted among the reliable QB1s again. The same applies to Wilson – fantasy fans and Wilson managers are hoping for an impact from the new head coach Sean Payton. If Payton can’t revive Wilson’s career, then probably nobody can.
Tier 5: QBs with upside but also question marks
20. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
22. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
23. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
25. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Pickett has appeared in the second half of preseason as slowly adjusting to the pace in the NFL. In fact, the 25-year-old had the highest PFF passing grade (88.9) in the league in weeks 12-18. That didn’t show up on paper, though, as that span only resulted in four touchdowns — but that calls for positive regression. Currently, Pickett is one of my all time favorite options as a QB2 in Superflex leagues or as an upside pick behind “safe” options like Geno Smith or Daniel Jones.
All that was missing is the fake slide????
Is Kenny Pickett on the verge of a breakout season?#HereWeGo
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) July 29, 2023
Tier 6: Injured Kyler Murray and low-floor QBs
26. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
27. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
28. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
30. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
31. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
32. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Murray would of course be significantly higher in my rankings if he didn’t miss a significant chunk of the season injured. And given that the Cardinals are unlikely to be competitive in 2023, there’s not much incentive for Arizona to get their superstar out on the turf quickly, either. Phoenix is already planning for 2024 and fantasy managers should do the same with Murray. A possible sleeper in this tier is Howell, but the 22-year-old has yet to win the starting job in Washington in the camp battle with Jacoby Brissett. Howell has shown great rushing upside in his one NFL start in 2022 and in college in North Carolina and could climb a few tiers over the course of the season if he actually secures the starter job.
And that’s it for the quarterback rankings, next week we’re going to look at the tight ends. By the way: If you are interested in our running back rankings for the fantasy year 2023, just click here. And here are the receiver rankings.
1690886546
#NFL #Fantasy #Football #Rankings #Quarterback #TOUCHDOWN24