2023-10-13 04:20:00
After a rather calm spring, the autumn was just as gloomy for real estate. Thus, according to the real estate valuation site Meilleurs Agents, unlike 2022 when prices at the national level had nevertheless increased by + 0.2%, the general trend is downward this year. And faced with the difficulty of accessing credit, demand is falling and stocks are growing. This is often also accompanied by longer deadlines.
We might as well say it right away, the drop in prices is far from over. MA even forecasts a fall of 4% for the next twelve months. “There is no improvement in the market,” says Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director of Meilleurs Agents/SeLoger. Certainly, credit rates will stabilize and their granting should be made easier but, even if prices will fall a little, it will take a little time before the market starts to rise again. In eighteen months, the French have lost 20% of purchasing power, which roughly corresponds to one less coin. »
It is especially the prices of large cities which are the most affected, such as Bordeaux (- 8.3%) or Lyon (- 8.4%). “This unprecedented phenomenon is explained by the conjunction of the rapid increase in borrowing rates since September 2022 and the level of real estate prices reached in these two municipalities,” underlines the expert. The greater dependence on credit and the drastic reduction in borrowing capacity have hit households there more strongly than in the other cities in the top 10.”
Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux have exceeded their pre-2018 stock
Another consequence: the evolution of the offer in these municipalities has exploded in one year. + 44% in Lyon and + 38% in Bordeaux. “What is quite crazy is that barely a year ago, the national market was hit by a shortage of goods, stocks had never been so low,” recalls Thomas Lefebvre. Today, the time is rather one of oversupply. Lyon, Paris, Bordeaux but also Nantes and Rennes have already exceeded their pre-2018 stock.”
Another important factor: wait-and-see attitude. Many buyers, seeing prices falling, tend to say that this will continue and do not move. Especially if sellers maintain their prices. Thus, in one year, it takes 14 days more to sell in Lyon (70 days), 12 days more in Nantes (71 days), despite a price drop of 5.1%, and, to a lesser extent, four additional days in Paris (68 days) and two days in Bordeaux (67 days).
Not all cities are in the same boat. Thus Perpignan and Toulon recorded impressive price jumps, with + 10.9% and + 10.2% respectively. This is largely explained by the fact that these municipalities display fairly low rates for their size, respectively 3,310 euros/m2 and 3,774 euros/m2, a little more than the average price in France, 3,171 euros/m2 . They therefore have slightly shorter sales times, 61 days and 66 days.
Logically, this shift also causes a drop in transactions. They have already fallen by 20% compared to 2022 and Meilleurs Agents forecasts that they will fall by another 10% in the coming year. “We have entered a third phase,” explains Yann Jéhanno, boss of the Laforêt group. The first was the awareness of sellers of the need to lower prices; the second, that of buyers to revise their project downwards with the increase in interest rates; the third is that of a further reduction in prices on the part of sellers to be in phase with the market. »
“The buyers who are on the market are all motivated”
Same observation for Corinne Bérec, vice-president of the Orpi cooperative. “The calculation is quite simple,” she emphasizes. A couple who earns 4,200 euros could borrow 300,000 euros a year ago and today this figure has fallen to 218,000 euros. This is a considerable drop in purchasing power. So we would need at least a 10% drop in prices, or even more in large cities whose prices have skyrocketed over the last five years. Which is not yet the case currently. »
To achieve this result, she has a fairly simple technique. “With stocks having swelled, you just need to show the seller that three-room apartments like hers, with almost the same characteristics, there are around a hundred in the city,” she smiles. Usually he understands eventually. »
The fact remains that even if the market seems to be stuck, the majority of professionals want to put things into perspective. “The demand is certainly lower but it is undoubtedly more qualitative,” maintains Yann Jéhanno. The buyers who are on the market, given its condition, are all motivated. We must also remember that the year 2022 was the year of all records in terms of transactions (1.2 million). So there, we will find the levels of 2018 (900,000), which is far from dramatic. »
Corinne Bérec also considers that the real estate market is in the process of rebalancing after having experienced two completely crazy years. “Until a year ago, people bought anything at any price for fear of no longer having goods to invest in,” she insists. Today, buyers are taking their time. But we must state it loud and clear, a property that is at the right price will be sold. »
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