World leaders are meeting in Antalya as new data shows the planet is on track to heat up by 2.7°C by 2100, an “irrecoverable overshoot” that will trigger catastrophic climate impacts, a report warns.
The analysis from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), released during UN climate talks, finds that under current policies, global warming will smash the 1.5°C threshold agreed upon a decade ago within just a few years.
This projection is up slightly from last year’s estimate of 2.6°C, and the same as 2021 to 2024. The stark reality should compel governments to act quickly to phase out fossil fuels, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday. But there is a catch: even if all countries were to meet their long-term pledges, the world would still warm by 1.9C by the end of the century.
Many vulnerable countries still lack the data needed to prepare for increasingly extreme weather. At the @turkiyecop31 @UNFCCC Pavilion, WMO’s Celeste Saulo will show how observations help understand the climate, anticipate risks & drive action. 🔴 https://t.co/PgPfnJBv7H#COP31 pic.twitter.com/s4sbTUyrPr
The implications of this trajectory are vast and deeply concerning. Beyond 1.5C, scientists warn that already harmful storms, droughts, heatwaves, and flooding will become intolerable for parts of the world and could trigger runaway climate change that won’t be contained. Every increment of warming above this limit will worsen impacts on climate, nature, and human systems, experts say.
“The stark choice for governments is to either continue to support the fossil fuel industry, which would consign humanity to insurmountable economic damages, rising mortality from heat and climate-driven diseases and disasters that they are unable to adapt to – or pivot to the solutions which are available and cheaper than ever,” says Bill Hare, chief executive of CAT partner organisation Climate Analytics.
World leaders gather at @turkiyecop31 against the backdrop of record-breaking climate signals. WMO's #StateOfClimate Update for #COP31 provides authoritative scientific information, helping inform decisions and support implementation and action. Explore: https://t.co/KCbuZ6JwbO pic.twitter.com/iAcEIjR9nB
A Critical Juncture in Antalya
The talks in Turkey have been dominated by the looming overshoot of the temperature target. This reality, Guterres stated, should be a catalyst for immediate and decisive action. However, the mood is one of urgency mixed with frustration. Greta Thunberg, arriving in Antalya on Tuesday, warned that “everything and everyone we love is at stake” because of the failure to confront the climate crisis.
“Governments collectively are simply not moving fast enough to adopt the policies that would enable us to escape from the emerging overshoot trap,” said Sarah Heck, lead author of the CAT report. She added that some countries, such as the US, Canada, and New Zealand, are even slowing down their climate action to a “staggering level.”
This collective inaction stands in stark contrast to the initial success following the 2015 Paris Agreement. International climate initiatives after 2015 helped lower projected warming by approximately 1°C. However, subsequent policy improvements have been offset by inadequate implementation and continued reliance on fossil fuels.
Climate Warming Destabilizes Global Economies and Security
The climate crisis is no longer just an environmental issue; it is a central pillar of global economics and geopolitics. The projected 2.7°C of warming would plunge billions into disastrous impacts, with profound implications for international supply chains, foreign investment, and global security. Regions facing the brunt of extreme weather—from coastal cities to agricultural breadbaskets—will see their economies destabilized, triggering mass migration and resource conflicts.
The climate crisis is outrunning us. Meanwhile, fossil fuel interests keep making a killing – while killing our planet. But we cannot surrender. In fact, we must fight harder. We are in the fight for our lives & for our children’s future. And we must win.#COP31 pic.twitter.com/AQxMzYRt1k
Island nations are sounding the alarm most loudly. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine warned that continued fossil fuel expansion threatens the survival of countries already experiencing the consequences of climate change, including coastal erosion and increasingly severe weather. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley urged developed nations to translate financial commitments into actual assistance for countries struggling with climate-related destruction.
On the economic front, the CAT report points to a glimmer of hope: clean energy investment is now double that of fossil fuels, and electric vehicle use is soaring. China and India are deploying renewables at a record pace, while deforestation in the Amazon has fallen sharply. These positive signs, however, are far from enough to avert disaster.
Young people's fearless advocacy has been crucial in addressing the climate crisis. I thank my @YAGClimate Youth Advisory Group for our frank discussion about their observations & concerns at #COP31. pic.twitter.com/NsnBNPhRqY
The Pathway Back from the Brink
A new flagship report from Climate Analytics offers a sobering yet hopeful perspective. While governments’ past failures have made overshoot likely, the report shows that the path to ending it and returning global warming below 1.5°C by 2100 is clear, feasible, and necessary. The centrepiece of this pathway is a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, beginning with a halving of their use by 2035.
“We have virtually all of the tools we need to do this,” said Dr. Marcia Rocha, 1.5°C Overshoot Hub lead at Climate Analytics and the report’s coordinator. “And in many cases the clean option is also the cheap and secure option, because moving away from fossil fuels in a world of volatile geopolitics is just a pragmatic thing to do.”
The report outlines a series of critical measures: rapid cuts in methane emissions from energy, waste, and agriculture; restoration of natural ecosystems and an end to deforestation; and a scale-up of carbon dioxide removal to take CO2 out of the air. These actions, if implemented, could halt global warming by mid-century, limit peak warming to 1.7°C, and return global temperatures to a safer level by the end of the century.
| Key Climate Projections | Warming by 2100 |
|---|---|
| Current Policies (CAT) | 2.7°C |
| If All Pledges Met (CAT) | 1.9°C |
| Paris Agreement Target | 1.5°C |
| Peak Warming with Highest Ambition | 1.7°C (mid-century) |
The Human Cost and Call to Action
The stakes are measured in human lives and livelihoods. Beyond the economic and environmental damage, the climate crisis is a profound humanitarian issue, with heat-related mortality and climate-driven diseases on the rise. The failure to act decisively now will lead to a future where large parts of the world become uninhabitable.
“Every increment of warming above 1.5C means even more significant consequences across climate, nature and human systems.” The focus, he said, must be on accelerating action to limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot.
As the world watches, the choices made in the coming years will determine whether we slide into a future of irreversible damage or begin the arduous climb back toward a safer planet. The path is clear, but the time to walk it is now.
Climate Analytics stated that governments’ past policy failures have made overshoot likely, but added that the report very clearly indicates there is a way out, and that world leaders gathering at COP31, led by twin chairs Türkiye and Australia, need to start taking the first steps back towards a cooler, fairer and safer world.
