Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4 per cent in 2026, a shift largely attributed to energy supply disruptions following the war in Iran rather than a structural transition to cleaner energy.
Fossil Fuel Emissions Decrease Slightly Despite Coal Rise
The annual update from the Global Carbon Project, published in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 10, 2026, estimates that fossil fuel emissions will reach 38.2 billion metric tons for the year. While this marks a slight decrease from 2025 levels, researchers emphasize that the reduction is primarily a reaction to geopolitical volatility.
The 2026 decrease is driven by a 1.9 per cent drop in oil emissions and a 0.3 per cent dip in gas emissions, which are partially offset by a 0.6 per cent increase in emissions from coal.
The conflict in Iran has effectively restricted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum products. This disruption, described as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market, has pushed up international prices for gasoline and oil.
Consequently, the world is emitting approximately 1,335 tons of heat-trapping gas into the atmosphere every second. Scientists warn that if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, the supply constraints would likely end, potentially dampening the short-term effects of the reduced carbon emissions currently seen.
Structural Changes Versus Temporary Blips
Despite the decline, experts caution against viewing 2026 as the definitive peak of global carbon output. If it was just a rise in renewables and a systemic drop in fossil fuel use, oil emissions would slowly come up to a peak and then slowly decline afterward, whereas what we see this year is oil emissions are going up and then suddenly BANG, down 2%,
Peters said.
While clean technology deployment is accelerating, it is not yet sufficient to offset the global growth in energy demand. For 2026 alone, renewable energy and electric vehicles are projected to offset about 69 per cent of demand-related growth.
According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 (Stated Policies Scenario), coal demand is expected to peak and decline before 2030, while gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s and oil demand flattens by the end of the decade.
Regional Variations in Carbon Output
The projected 0.4 per cent decline is not uniform across all major economies. China, the world’s largest emitter at 32 per cent of global totals, is projected to see a 0.9 per cent decrease in emissions for 2026.
China has had flat emissions for the last few years after a fairly steep increase in the last decade. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether China has peaked or not. Whether this is just a one-off and China rebounds next year, we’ll have to wait and see, it’s too early to say,
Peters observed.
In contrast, India saw its fossil fuel pollution increase by 4.4 per cent this year. University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck remarked, We’re not phasing out fossil fuels fast enough, but some progress is better than no progress.
The Role of Land Sinks and the Carbon Budget
Although fossil fuel emissions dropped slightly, total global carbon dioxide emissions—which include land-use change—are projected to reach a record high of 43.3 billion tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tons in 2025. This increase is driven by human-caused peat fires, deforestation, and the conversion of wild land to agriculture, often exacerbated by dry conditions linked to El Niño.
With human-caused warming reaching 1.37C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C with a 50 per cent chance is estimated at 150 billion tons of CO2 from the start of 2027.
Mohamed Adow, director of the environmental group Power Shift Africa, noted the scale of the ongoing impact: The world is still pumping more than a thousand tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every second.
As delegates convene in Antalya, Türkiye, for the 31st annual United Nations climate conference, analysts emphasize that sustained progress requires a fundamental transformation of global economies to reduce climate pollution.
Earlier coverage: China CO2 Émissions Drop 3.1% in Q3 Due to Hormuz Shipping
