Roland-Garros – Semi-final: Which of Nadal, Zverev, Cilic or Ruud will lift the 2022 Roland-Garros trophy?

They were 128 on the starting line, a short distance from it, there are only four left. The winner of Roland-Garros 2022 is among Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and Marin Cilic. The weight of history puts one name far ahead of the others, especially since the rest of the list includes a German at the only Grand Slam final, a Dane who discovers the last four and a Croatian that the we had not seen at this level for a long time. So respect for traditions or revolution?

Robin Söderling, Novak Djokovic, end of the list. In seventeen years, two players have brought down the ogre of ocher in his garden at Roland-Garros. Better, or worse, depending on which side you are on, only the Serb made it to the semi-final stage. The figures are enough to make Zverev, Ruud and Cilic pale. Nadal in the semi-finals at Roland is 13 successes for 1 defeat. Nadal in the final at Roland, it’s 13 successes for 0 defeat, end of story.

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Nadal, the break on Djokovic and Federer?

The Taurus of Manacor forms with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic a triumvirate which shares only the crumbs of its Obélix meal. The Grand Slam semis and finals were and still are, with a few rare exceptions, the rendezvous of their duels. Seeing only one representative of the Big 3 in the semi-finals is in itself a small event. This year it seems mainly due to the fact that Nadal was placed in Djokovic’s part of the table but it is also the witness of the passage of time.

“After Roland, I have the impression that we will say goodbye to Nadal in 2022”

Rafael Nadal can bring his total of Grand Slam victories to 22 this Sunday, he is only two victories from the break over Federer but also and above all without doubt, over Djokovic. For these three, to which we must add Andy Murray who, if he is no longer what he was, actively participated in the stranglehold of a quartet on world tennis, not to compete in half or in the final of a Major is a rarity. Are they in the habit of passing up the opportunity? Not really, and especially not Nadal.

Since 2008 and the advent of Djokovic at the Australian Open, twelve times a member of the Big 4 has found himself in a last four Grand Slam without the presence of one of his three rivals. Ten times, he lifted the trophy:

  • Roland-Garros 2009: Victory for Federer
  • Roland-Garros 2010: Victory for Nadal
  • US Open 2016: Wawrinka victory over Djokovic
  • Wimbledon 2017: Victory for Federer
  • US Open 2017: Victory of Nadal
  • Australian Open 2018: Victory for Federer
  • Roland-Garros 2018: Victory for Nadal
  • US Open 2019: Victory of Nadal
  • Australian Open 2021: Victory for Djokovic
  • Wimbledon 2021: Victory over Djokovic
  • US Open 2021: Medvedev victory over Djokovic
  • Australian Open 2022: Victory for Nadal

Funny to see that it was Novak Djokovic who failed twice in this situation. Rafael Nadal has been there five times and has never wavered. Zverev, Cilic and Ruud are warned.

Zverev, the most dangerous

In many respects, the German, because he has the most certainty as the third player in the world, seems undoubtedly the most dangerous for Nadal. His authoritative victory over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals surprised many and reminded what a player he could be if his head was upright. She seems to be and the challenge promises to be more than serious for the host who has just spent 8h33 on the court in two matches.

Zverev world No. 1 at the end of Roland-Garros? “Improbable but, with him, everything is possible”

In terms of the world ranking alone, this Nadal-Zverev semi-final is all that is most logical. The same cannot be said for the other duel between Casper Ruud, a neophyte at this level, and Marin Cilic, winner of the Grand Slam (US Open 2014) found in this Paris fortnight. When he dreamed of this moment, the Norwegian probably did not imagine himself facing Cilic and for a return to the last four, the Croatian is rather varnished with the Scandinavian. The first warned that he would not be under pressure. As for the second, he plays the “tennis of his life” according to his opponent on Friday.

Both will have to avoid the pitfall of planning an impossible challenge against Nadal (13 wins in 13 finals at Roland) on Sunday. There is a half to play and win before considering the rest. For Zverev, the challenge will be to follow up the feat, if there is a feat, with a final in which he will be the huge favourite. Any other result than a victory for Nadal, whether he falls in the semis or in the final, would be a revolution like men’s tennis has not seen for a very long time.

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