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Between Tuesday and Saturday of last week, the Ukrainians rescued about 30 settlements in the region. For Sunday the 11th they took Izyum y Kupyanskimportant cities for the distribution of supplies. Balakleya it also returned to the hands of the invaded country.
In this regard, the lieutenant general and one of the spokesmen for the Kremlin, Igor Konashenkovstated that the “redespliegue” is part of their strategy. He explained that the Russian troops withdrew from Balakleya e Izyum to regroup and focus on Donetskbecause the goal is still to release the donbas. To redirect efforts without damaging his forces it was necessary to distract Ukrainian troops with missiles and artillery. Hence, it seemed like a simple victory for those led by the President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Can the Russian version be doubted? Yes, if the importance of the recovered territories is taken into account. For example, Kupyansk era “a key point in the Russian logistics supply chain”, points Europa Press. Similarly, it ensures AFP agency, Izyum It is located on the road between donbas y Jarkovso that “the ukrainians broke the russian encirclement over part of this industrial basin”. For the BBCwhat has been achieved is the “most significant frontline change since the Russians” stopped their siege of the capital kyiv in April.
The Italian analyst Francesco Tucci believes that, in effect, it is a Russian attempt by “cover the sun with a finger”. He remembers that, for months, Ukraine announces a counterattack in the south of the country and that, therefore, the Kremlin mobilized about ten thousand rookie soldiers to that area.
“But it was all a deception because they also attacked the northeast part where second-line forces remained. They did not resist and had to lay down their arms. And now it turns out that Moscow wants to sell us that it was all part of their plan“, Explain.
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Uncertain future
Rubens de S. Duarte, security specialist and coordinator of the World Political Analysis Laboratorysays that the Ukrainian advance is, without a doubt, a surprise. Opinion similar has the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom: “The Russian forces were probably taken by surprise. The sector was loosely controlled and Ukrainian units seized or surrounded several towns.”.
But speed and amazement alone do not explain these good results. She said it Antony Blinken, United States Secretary of Stateduring his visit from Friday 9 to Brussels. “I think we can say that Ukraine is proceeding with a strong plan and enabled by the resources that many of us are providing”.
In addition to the weapons they share, the “New York Times” revealed that the work of intelligence was vital to the design of the counteroffensive. The medium does not only refer to data on “command posts and ammunition depots” that have been fundamental in the resistance; learning about Russian actions and the care and vividness with which they Kiev used the information about the plans of the Kremlin.
Duarte asks for calm. “It is difficult to talk about the relevance of intelligence, both American and European, in the recovery of the territory. Yes, we are sure that it exists and that it is shared, but to have a real dimension we should know what information it is. The latter is impossible because it is secret”.
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What would come? “Russia has the power to establish itself inside Ukrainian soil, so the most logical thing would be for it to maintain its position and try to negotiate a peace treaty that is convenient for them. If Moscow has a chance to win some territory near the sea, like Crimea, it will. In any case, one would have to wonder if she will succeed in proposing. I don’t think it will happenDuarte says.
Is a new backlash coming from Moscow? Will Russia toughen its attacks?
Francesco Tucci considers that it is very likely that nothing of the kind will happen. The reason: It does not have the necessary resources to respond to the attack or the logistics to sustain such frequent confrontations., like those that the specialist foresees happening in the south in the following days. “There the Ukrainians destroyed several bridges, so the Russians cannot guarantee combat logistics that allow them to mobilize tons of weapons and spare parts”.
Getting supplies by air or water would also not be enough to hold a line of fire.
“And, little by little, the needs of the Russian army continue to increase, so they will not be able to operate without reinforcements.”.
In any case, the Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation, George Dubynskyi, believes that in the coming months, whenthe weather gets cold“, the Kremlin “will try again to attack the power grid”. Conventional weapons will take a backseat. “In the next phase of the war, they will try to destroy our energy and financial sectors.”, he declared.