At the Élysée, statistics are mentioned spontaneously. “Each rotating presidency of the EU must manage its great international crisis, breathes an adviser to Emmanuel Macron. All the scenarios are on the table, in order to be able to react with force and speed.” Until June 30, France will chair the Council of the EU and will therefore have a decisive role in coordinating European actions. The country in charge of the rotating presidency manages the agenda, the interministerial meetings, the summits, but also the emergency.
In August 2008, during the last French presidency of the EU – the PFUE -, Paris had to play diplomatic firefighters during the lightning war between Russia and Georgia. Nicolas Sarkozy, then president, had relied on his status as representative of Europe to play the mediator, with some success and a jump in the polls. This year, in the midst of the presidential campaign, French diplomacy will be keen to show its leadership, on pain of great disappointment.
• Omicron, the variant that risks driving Europeans away
This is the most obvious and direct threat. At the start of the year, Western Europe is submerged by a new wave of Covid-19, due to the ultra-contagious variant Omicron. “The Covid had overthrown the presidency of Croatia in early 2020, but the context has changed and France has prepared to advance its European reforms despite Omicron”, relativizes a French diplomat, who ensures that the government is working to adapt the PFUE at this variant since November.
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But Omicron is already disrupting the French agenda: gatherings have been canceled and the majority of European meetings at the start of the year will be done in a hybrid manner, combining physical presence and videoconferencing. “The Covid-19 crisis will continue to enamel this PFUE, estimates Georgina Wright, director of the Europe program of the Montaigne Institute. More than 400 physical meetings are scheduled between January 1 and the end of March, it’s huge! the tidal wave of contaminations is confirmed, it will harm the possibility of bringing France and Europe closer together. ”
• Russian maneuvers on the border with Ukraine
With 100,000 Russian soldiers massed on the outskirts of Ukraine, Europe has been holding its breath for several weeks. If the West, led by the United States, threatens “huge sanctions” against Moscow in the event of an invasion, the 27 EU members remain uncertain about a possible intervention to defend Kiev. The coordination of the Member States would then be essential. “We are watching very closely what is happening at the Ukrainian border,” said a source at the Élysée Palace, who remembers the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008, during the last French presidency of the EU. In 2014, as Russia invaded Crimea, Europe displayed its powerlessness and total lack of coordination in foreign policy.
• Brexit: the possibility of chaos
Boris Johnson, at worst in the polls, is trying to rally his voters behind a common enemy: the European Union. After the resignation of David Frost, his “Mr. Brexit” who had been negotiating with Brussels for three years, the Prime Minister finds himself alone on the front line. A crisis with Europe would be a perfect diversion in the event of a new major scandal involving BoJo and his teams.
The situation in Northern Ireland, which has remained in the European common market despite its membership in the United Kingdom, continues to stir up resentment. London refuses to implement customs controls between Great Britain and Belfast, although these are provided for in the Brexit treaties. “If the UK triggers Article 16 [qui prévoit la suspension des garanties douanières] and withdraws de facto Brexit agreements, we will be facing a major European crisis, “warns the Élysée. Here again, solidarity between the Twenty-Seven would be a key factor, with a risk of chaos between the continent and the British Isles.
• The Union paralyzed by Poland and Hungary
The Hungarian Prime Minister, also campaigning for his re-election next April, could well play the spoilsport of the French presidency. Well aware of the risk that Viktor Orban represents for the PFUE, Emmanuel Macron visited the land of the one he describes as his “political opponent” at the end of December, in order to initiate a constructive dialogue.
In recent years, Hungary and Poland have increased provocations against Brussels, which is now responding with economic sanctions. “Since 2015, all the EU presidencies have had to deal with the rule of law issue in Poland and Hungary, explained to us at the end of November the Vice-President of the European Commission, Vera Jourova. But the French presidency takes place in the height of this problem, with Poland directly calling into question the primacy of European law and an ever-escalating conflict. Europe must speak with one voice on these subjects, and the French authorities are capable of to embody this common message. ”
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France will have to play on a thread, because it will not be able to do without these two Member States to advance the European reforms envisaged during its six months of presidency. “If the discussions go badly with Poland and Hungary, these two countries have the capacity to block the entire European decision-making process”, worries an adviser at the Elysee. Emmanuel Macron’s very ambitious agenda for the PFUE would then become a vast chimera.
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