Russia’s Military Buildup and Strategy for the Battle of Avdiywka: Analysis and Implications for the Ukraine War

2023-12-01 07:32:00
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Far behind the front there are many wrecks, just behind the front there are fresh forces: Russia is probably gathering new units for the next attempt on Avdiywka.

Awdiijwka – People die at the front, people move up at the back: That is the gloomy analysis with which Bild currently reporting from the front in the small town of Awdiijwka. There are a large number of modern armored personnel carriers in the pictures Russia to see. These wheeled tanks, which are comparable to the German Boxer, bring Russian motorized riflemen into the fight against the Ukraine. Along the approach route south of Avdiijwka, wrecks of shot down armored personnel carriers are lined up like a string of pearls. Vladimir Putin’s Troops appear to be replenishing their losses or reinforcing their units.

The small Ukrainian town with around 30,000 inhabitants is within sight of Donetsk, i.e. close to the areas in eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia since 2014. The city has been a frontline city for around ten years and is therefore constantly under fire from both parties in the Ukraine war. Strategically or psychologically, the city seems to be important for both sides, at least it ties up Russian forces that are missing on other sectors of the front. However, several Western observers believe that they are seeing increasing signs of fatigue among the Ukrainian defenders, such as daily News writes: The Ukrainian troops are in a difficult situation. Russia has more drones, more artillery shells, more men and is attacking in many places on the front. Hence the massive deployment of wheeled armored personnel carriers. The next wave of attacks is rolling.

The Russian troops may have already lost up to a third of the forces deployed there, says former NATO general Erhard Bühler MDR-Podcast “What to do, Mr General”. He does not attribute great strategic importance to Avdiivka – something that military expert Carlo Masala, for example, sees differently. According to Bühler, the previous massive attacks more about relief attacks for the troops on the southern front in order to tie down the Ukrainians in the east. The taz sees the fighting as a struggle for a prestige object in a similar way to the fight for Crimea: around Avdiywka in 2014, Ukraine stopped the attempts of Russia and the Russian-controlled Donbass separatists to bring the entire Donetsk area under their control. “Avdiivka remained a Ukrainian thorn in the side of the Russian occupation of Donbass. If Russia were to suffer a serious defeat around Avdiivka, Ukraine would even have access to the megacity of Donetsk, just 15 kilometers away.”

Armored personnel carrier in front of Avdiywka: Russia is currently training new motorized soldiers in the battle for the small town (archive photo). © Uncredited/imago

The armored personnel carrier: supplier of Putin’s human material

As in most military movements, speed is a crucial aspect in Awdiijwka – this is why the motorized riflemen are brought in; its counterpart in the West is the Panzergrenadier. The Panzergrenadier goes back to the German tank general Heinz Guderian. This meant that they would be equipped with a special armored vehicle, the armored personnel carrier, so that they could fight both mounted and dismounted. Their main task was to support armored units. In the armies of the East the name is different, but their task is the same.

Their workhorse is the BTR-80A – designed to transport nine infantrymen including the commander sitting on the right front side. The combat vehicles of the BTR-80 series enable mounted combat through shooting hatches built into the armor, two each to the front and rear and three each on both sides.
The armored personnel carriers are operated by the gunner and the driver, and in mounted combat also by the group leader. The type spotted at Awdiijwka is the upgraded version BTR-82A, which offers better protection for the occupants, has a more powerful engine and a 30mm machine cannon as the main armament.

The assumption that Avdiywka will also become one for the Russians Material battle developed, supports a current release of the platform ukrinform regarding destroyed Russian vehicles. According to this, the invading army is said to have lost 5,388 main battle tanks and 10,121 armored fighting vehicles by the end of November – including the wheeled infantry fighting vehicles that are urgently needed to supply crews. Tactically, this loss also affects the operational capability of all units involved, especially the operational value of the main battle tanks.

In the counteroffensive: every grenadier is a tank destroyer

When it comes to the combination of different vehicle types and soldier tasks, the military speaks of combined arms combat – this is where the different types of weapons benefit from each other. Advantages and disadvantages can be balanced. The main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers ideally form a solid unit. The provision of trained motorized riflemen at the front is therefore also of great importance for the Western weapon systems used. The danger for the western tanks also lurks in every hedge. Shoulder-mounted anti-tank weapons fired from ambush on the flanks are far more dangerous for tanks than a direct tank duel.

Every well-trained Panzergrenadier is a tank destroyer. The speed of the individual soldier is just as important as the number and mobility of their vehicles: dismounted armored infantrymen or motorized riflemen explore the space and take up a position. Ideally, the process is always the same – as it is armed forces describes: The first shooter determines the distance to the tank to be fought, reports it and shoots on command. If he doesn’t hit, a second shooter can immediately correct the shooting distance and shoot too.

The soldiers then immediately move to their collection room to be picked up by their armored personnel carrier or to receive another order. “This should only take a few minutes. Tanks don’t wait to be fought. And the bazooka is most effective when the tank is stationary or only moving slowly,” quotes the armed forces her staff sergeant Axel P. (name abbreviated), platoon leader in the 3rd company of the 371 Panzergrenadier Battalion in Marienberg, Saxony.

“Soviet principle”: Without mercy for life and limb

The current images give the impression that Russia can bring in inexhaustible resources without considering its own losses. Estimates suggest that at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the approximately 2,000 Ukrainian battle tanks were ten times as large as Russian material; in terms of armored vehicles, Ukraine is said to have deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 vehicles, and Russia five times as much.

However, the high level of material wear in the current battles is due to the partially inadequate armor of the Russian vehicles. Roger Näbig writes in the magazine International Politics: “The fundamental lack of soldiers further meant that Russia’s now technically more modern and powerful equipment could not develop its full potential. “In addition, the Russian army did not have enough motorized or mechanized infantry, intelligence and reconnaissance forces to more effectively protect its lines of communication and supply convoys in Ukraine.”

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As the historian and director of the German Tank Museum, Ralf Raths, makes clear, this may have little impact on the basic Russian doctrine as the war progresses – according to him, the Russian leadership no value on the individual vehicle. For Russian officers, the only thing that counts is the success of the association. The Russian leadership is relying on crushing the enemy with mass. The images suggest that the Russians are continuing to pursue the tactic that Raths describes as the traditional “Soviet principle”: using maximum brute force and fire support to create gaps in points in order to push through there with heavy and concentrated forces – even at the risk of large ones Losses of material and people.

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