The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than three months, and the Battle of Donbass, which will determine the future fate of Ukraine, is coming to an end. Once the Russian army completely drives the Ukrainian armed forces out of the Donbass region, Russia has completed one of the main goals of the special military operation. one.
Although the Russian army is about to complete the goal of the second phase of the war, the failure of the Russian army in the first phase still leaves many doubts. According to the latest news from the US “FOX News Network”, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently ordered the arrest of more than 150 agents of the Russian Federal Security Service on the grounds of intelligence errors, including the head of the fifth branch of the security service, Sergey. Besseda and his deputy Anatoly Bollyuch.
Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov told the media that because the U.S. military used a combination of military offensives and money bribery, it quickly disintegrated the defense of the Iraqi capital Baghdad and occupied Iraq. And Putin also hoped to follow the US military means of attacking Iraq, to launch a special military operation in Ukraine.
So since 2014, Putin has allocated billions of dollars to the Fifth Service of the Russian Federal Security Service for military intelligence infiltration into Ukraine. The fifth division of the FSB has long been responsible for Russian intelligence infiltration into the former Soviet Union, and was established in 1998 when Putin was the head of the FSB.
According to the original plan, after 8 years, the heads of the military and local governments in Ukraine should be bought off. The Russian army only needs to send people to take over strategic locations and eliminate the stubborn ultra-nationalist armed forces.
Therefore, the name of Russia’s initial fight was a special military operation, and it did not intend to carry out a long-term war with Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, only 60,000 troops were mobilized, and the troops entered Ukraine in 9 routes. The Russian armored troops abandoned fire support and logistics, and advanced deeply. In the enemy territory, the Russian Air Force disappeared after destroying the air force and airfields in eastern Ukraine. The airborne troops also boldly went deep into the Ukrainian capital to perform beheading tasks without surrounding support.
However, the reality was not as smooth as Putin expected. The various troops entering Ukraine were fiercely resisted by the Ukrainian army, losing a large number of tanks and armored vehicles in vain. The Russian airborne troops were surrounded by the Kyiv garrison and suffered heavy losses.
Drone footage shows a Russian tank convoy being violently attacked by Ukrainians.Picture: Reprinted from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
After the failure of the first stage of the Russian offensive, Putin ordered the General Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federal Army to investigate the whereabouts of the billions of funds and the failure of the Ukrainian intelligence work. In the end, a large number of personnel of the Fifth Department of the Russian Federal Security Service were arrested. .
It is worth noting, however, that Putin ordered the arrest of Sergey Besseda, head of the FSA’s fifth branch, and his deputy, Anatoly Bollyuch, in the name of intelligence error, not corruption.
Due to the peculiarities of the intelligence services, a lot of information cannot be officially released, but it can be speculated from several news items why Sergey and Anatoly are accused of intelligence errors.
According to the Chinese media “Fenghuang.com”, in February 2022, the Fifth Division of the Russian Federal Security Service commissioned a polling company to conduct a nominal investigation into Ukraine. This poll has a lot of overlap with Putin’s 4D speech. Overall, it highlights the low governance capacity of the Ukrainian government and a high degree of public distrust of the government.
According to the poll, Ukrainians are generally pessimistic about the future, worried about inflation and the cost of living, 67% of the people do not trust Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, only 11% and 8% of the people believe in Ukrainian political parties And the parliament, but the Ukrainian people’s trust in the army is as high as 68%. Although 90% of the people believe that the Russian army is gathering, they generally believe that Russia does not dare to go to war, and 51% of the people believe that the Ukrainian army can defeat Russia. Under the premise that it is not clear that the infiltration work has failed, perhaps this poll has also caused the Russian government to misjudgment the hearts of the Ukrainian people to some extent.
On February 21, Russia held a meeting of top government leaders. Putin asked the head of the Russian Federal Security Service, Naryshkin, whether he supported the recognition of the independence and sovereignty of the “Luhansk Republic” and “Donetsk Republic”. Reshkin acted submissive and hesitant to say anything, nothing like a leader of the FSB.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.Photo: flipping twitter
Naryshkin is an old colleague and friend of Putin, who has worked with Putin since the days of the GPU. Naryshkin’s evasive performance at the meeting only showed that he at least knew that Russia’s intelligence infiltration work in Ukraine over the past eight years had a big problem, and that Russia’s special military operation was bound to fail. On the other hand, the security domain of the Russian Federation also has the problem of outsourcing the intelligence network layer by layer.
In 2020, the anti-Russian hacker group-Digital Revolution infiltrated the internal information system of the Russian Federal Security Service and stole a large amount of data. According to public data, the Russian Federation security domain has signed commercial contracts with a number of network operators, such as Quatum, SyTech, etc. The Russian Federal Security Service monitors the movements of suspicious elements through data analysis and intelligence provided by these network operators.
While it is true that there are layers of subcontracting in modern intelligence work, that is the case where the real spies don’t connect directly with their contacts, but obtain intelligence through layers of subcontracting. On the other hand, the Russian Federal Security Agency did not establish its own information network like the US intelligence agency, but carried out intelligence work with commercial logic. Of course, such intelligence sources have great distortion.
The Russian Federal Security Service’s intelligence blunder was eventually dealt with by Putin. Another root cause can be traced back to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the global red intelligence network of the GPU (KGB) also collapsed, and the livelihood of a large number of GPU members became a basic problem. Putin said in an interview that he might have driven a taxi to make a living.
Although Putin has rectified the Russian intelligence network after serving as the head of the Russian Federal Security Service, and now the Russian leadership is also composed of many former GPU members, the actual economic conditions in Russia and the corruption problem within the government after the disintegration of the Soviet Union have also It is doomed that Russia’s intelligence network cannot be spread all over the world like the Soviet Union, and can only be limited to the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union. This time, there are intelligence work mistakes in Ukraine, which should give Russia a great warning.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for three months, and the Battle of Donbass, which will determine the future fate of Ukraine, is coming to an end. Once the Russian army completely drives the Ukrainian armed forces out of the Donbass region, Russia has completed one of the main goals of the special military operation. .
The Ukrainian National Guard claimed to have turned its back on the Ukrainian Luhansk region and destroyed the Russian T-64BV main battle tank.Photo: Flip through Мілітарний Facebook
According to reports, the strategically important “Izyum” in southeastern Ukraine has been occupied by Russia, and the Russian army is gradually encircling the east of Ukraine.Figure: Flip from Wang Dingyu’s Facebook