We are now in mid-January. It’s still a relatively warm winter. What are you expecting? How will fill levels continue to develop?
Extensive withdrawals have been made again since January 5th. In just two weeks, the fill level has fallen sharply from 54 to 46 percent. It is currently difficult to predict what this means for security of supply. However, the gas market is certainly well advised to be careful with the currently scarce reserves.
The Federal Ministry of Economics says: Yes, the levels are low. But we are keeping a very close eye on it, security of supply is not at risk. How do you determine the scarce reserves?
In 2015, the Federal Ministry of Economics commissioned and published an expert opinion in which minimum fill levels for certain risk scenarios are specified, effective date: February 1st. The result: a fill level of 40 percent is required for seven days of extreme cold. In order to avoid a supply gap, a fill level of 50 percent if it is permanently cold for 30 days. In the event of a political conflict, such as when Russia cuts off its gas supplies during a normal winter, a minimum fill level of 60 percent, according to the report, is necessary to prevent a supply bottleneck. I am not aware of any recent expertise on the required storage levels on the part of the federal authorities.