Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including former adversaries that fought on opposing sides of the 2020–2022 civil war, have formed a coalition named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
An Ethnically Diverse Coalition of Former Foes
Announced late on Sunday, the new alliance brings together groups based across the country, spanning from Tigray in the north to the Somali Region in the south. The coalition includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Amhara Fano National Movement. During the Tigray war, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread ethnically driven atrocities, Fano coalition armed groups fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF. Fano later turned against federal forces in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives in the Amhara region since 2023.
The alliance also incorporates factions from the Oromia, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Many participating factions share grievances regarding the federal government’s centralization of power and the marginalization of regional administrations. “We, the peoples’ forces concerned with the survival of Ethiopia’s peoples, bear the historic responsibility of overthrowing this regime,” said Fano leader Zemene Kassie in a statement broadcast on Tigrai TV and published across various social media feeds.
Government Response and Regional Allegations
Billene Seyoum, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, stated in a text message that coalition members had been collaborating over time with financial backing from Eritrea, Ethiopia’s neighbor and historic adversary. Seyoum noted that the announcement “is only attesting (to) what the Ethiopian government has been alleging time and again.” Eritrea’s information minister did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and Asmara has consistently denied past accusations.
The federal government maintains that its ongoing national dialogue initiative is designed to resolve internal conflicts and long-standing political divisions. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Media Authority issued a directive on Monday declaring that domestic news outlets are strictly prohibited from utilizing Tigrai TV as an information source. The director general of the media authority did not immediately respond to requests for further comment.
Operational Challenges and Military Context
The alliance follows recent skirmishes between federal troops and Tigrayan forces. In May, the TPLF reasserted administrative control over Tigray, an action that violated the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray war. The TPLF justified the move by claiming the federal government failed to honor the agreement. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project indicates that the Ethiopian military has launched multiple drone strikes against Tigrayan forces in recent months, while the military reported last week that nearly 300 Tigrayan fighters had surrendered.
Magnus Taylor, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, observed that while the coalition will draw concern in the federal government, its practical effectiveness remains in question. “Attempts for its members to work together may be hamstrung by the weak nature of several of the groups, the geographical distances between them and political differences,” Taylor told Reuters, noting that certain alliance members remain at loggerheads over territory and other disputes.
