Refinance applications are crossing into historically normal levels, according to data released Thursday, signaling a slow but steady rebound in the mortgage market. The Mortgage Refinance Index reading for the fourth week of February reached 1,638, a significant increase from the cycle low of 400 recorded in February 2023.
Although still in the bottom 25th percentile at the start of 2026, the recent surge has pushed activity into the bottom of “historically normal” refinance levels, according to ResiClub, which characterizes the upswing as a “refi boomlet” rather than a full-scale “boom.” The firm cautions that sustained growth will depend on further declines in mortgage rates.
The rebound is largely driven by borrowers who secured higher rates in 2023 and 2024 seeking payment relief. United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), a major player in the wholesale channel, has experienced a particularly strong recovery. UWM’s refinance volume has climbed from $14 billion in 2023 to a projected $70 billion in 2025, a +387% increase since its cycle low. Purchase volume at UWM has remained relatively stable, in the $90 billion to $96 billion range, even as existing home sales declined sharply in 2022.
The overall mortgage refinance index has followed a similar trajectory. Readings for February, by year, show a dramatic drop from 3,594 in 2020 to 400 in 2023, followed by increases to 784 in 2025 and 1,638 in 2026. Despite the improvement, 68.6% of U.S. Mortgage borrowers still hold an interest rate below 5.0%, potentially limiting the scope of the refinance boomlet.
ResiClub is currently conducting industry surveys targeting single-family rental (SFR) and build-to-rent (BTR) owners/operators/developers, as well as those working on the institutional side of the housing market. The results will be published in ResiClub and other media outlets.
Meanwhile, single-family home prices in some areas continue to experience corrections. A home in Venice, Florida, purchased for $565,000 in 2023, sold for $455,000 in December 2025, a 19.5% decrease. However, the December 2025 sales price remained 38.7% above the $328,000 price the property fetched in 2017. Southwest Florida, along with Austin, Texas, has seen some of the largest price drops, with Punta Gorda, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton experiencing declines of 25.3%, 19.1%, and 17.6% respectively, from their 2022 peaks.
ResiClub will host a webinar Thursday, March 5, at 3:00 p.m. ET (12:00 p.m. PT) geared towards single-family investors, featuring the team behind the Lennar Investor Marketplace to discuss the pros and cons of new construction.
