The shock wave of the war in Ukraine continues to spread through the French economy. One year to the day after the outbreak of the conflict, tensions are far from having subsided. Inflation continues to accelerate in France in February to 6.2%, against 6% in January according to INSEE. Food prices are propelling the consumer price index to new heights while energy prices are marking time. The Banque de France is now expecting sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023, after a disappointing end to 2022.
In this gloomy context, the business ombudsman drew up a worrying assessment of his activity on Thursday 9 March. “Unfortunately, 2022 has been particularly difficult. We want to sound the alarm. There is a return of mistrust due to soaring prices in many areas. The leitmotif of crisis profiteers [pour certains fournisseurs d’énergie notamment] was expressed. However, this creates mistrust. Stop mistrust and call for a return to trust”, declared Pierre Pelouzet during a press point given on the occasion of the presentation of the 2022 activity report.
Late payments can be “deadly” for some VSEs and SMEs
The proliferation of crises in recent years (pandemic, war in Ukraine, energy crisis) have revived tensions between principals and subcontractors. After a lull in 2021 linked to the post-Covid rebound, tensions over payment terms have resurfaced again in the context of the Ukrainian conflict, soaring prices or difficulties in the supply of raw materials or electronic components. “The weather is getting cooler. The year 2020 was extraordinary. We are no longer at that level at all. There was a real improvement in 2021. But in 2022, there are still higher levels of tension than 2019,” warned Pierre Pelouzet. “Now is not the time for companies to pay late. Even if the prices of energy and raw materials are better, late payments can be fatal for VSEs and SMEs that have to make the leap”he added.
Referrals down compared to 2021, still above the pre-pandemic period
Over the year as a whole, the mediation services integrated into Bercy recorded 3,600 requests and requests for mediation against 4,300 a year earlier. But the war in Ukraine was a turning point. After the invasion of Russia in Ukrainian territory, the teams of the Ministry of Finance had to face an avalanche of calls. ” In 2022, there was quite a spectacular rebound in the second half », underlined Pierre Pelouzet. In total, the mediator received 2,077 requests in 2022 (personalized responses to requests for information). This is certainly a level well below 2021 (3,250) and 2020 (6,075) but well above 2019 (1,000) or 2018 (700).
With regard to mediations, they fell from 2,025 in 2021 to 1,600 in 2022 but remain at a much higher level than the period preceding the health crisis (around 1,300). Here again, Bercy recorded an impressive jump (+33%) in requests for mediation between the second half of 2021 (751) and the second half of 2022 (996).
The rise in prices worsens relations in the building industry or in mass distribution
Unsurprisingly, most of the requests and a large part of the mediations concerned issues related to soaring prices in many areas. “Why these tensions? It is primarily related to energy. From April 2022, we set up a crisis committee. In the construction industry, we felt tensions very early on, from producers to builders. In the large distribution, we also felt tensions. We mediated during trade negotiations,” exhibited Pierre Pelouzet.
Shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, the mediation services received representatives of construction employers and SMEs during crisis meetings. Many feared cascading consequences on the large tricolor groups established in Ukraine or Russia. A year later, supply difficulties have partly eased. But some foreign-dependent sectors remain shrouded in thick fog.