South Africa recorded an agricultural trade surplus in the second quarter, expanding its surplus by 11.6% year-on-year. This growth occurred despite a 28% drop in agricultural shipments to the United States amid shifting trade tariffs and diplomatic friction over land policy and visa restrictions.
Agricultural Exports Surge Despite American Market Pullback
Overall agricultural exports climbed 9.1% year-on-year to reach $4.12 billion, while imports rose 6.4% to $1.98 billion, according to a joint quarterly report published by AgriCulture South Africa and the Agricultural Business Chamber. Horticulture and citrus shipments drove the performance, accounting for 51.3% of total agricultural sales.
The 28% contraction in shipments to the United States stemmed partly from exporters front-loading deliveries into the first quarter to get ahead of anticipated tariff adjustments. Commercial ties also faced mounting pressure from diplomatic disagreements between Washington and Pretoria regarding land policy discussions and American visa restrictions.
Addressing the diplomatic impasse in a report by Business Insider Africa, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa noted the legislative stance in Washington. “Congress has decided that we should be kept in AGOA. What now remains is the executive,” Ramaphosa stated, adding, “if we ever have a choice, we are not the first and only country to be taken out of AGOA. And I believe we will not be the last.”
Ramaphosa urged national preparedness against possible exclusion from duty-free access to the American market under the AGOA. “I need, as president, to prepare us if it ever happens. So we should not go out and jump off tall buildings and think that this is the end of the world,” he told the public.
South African Exporters Expand to Asian and Middle Eastern Markets
To offset softening demand from the United States and the United Arab Emirates, South African exporters expanded their footprint across Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Agricultural shipments to Vietnam jumped 153% year-on-year, exports to Saudi Arabia surged by 90%, and sales to China grew by 30%.
Trade with Beijing gained momentum after China introduced zero-tariff access for African agricultural goods in May 2026. However, South African red meat shipments remain suspended due to an ongoing Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak.
AgriSA Chief Executive Officer Johann Kotzé highlighted the sector’s agility in the joint report. “The second-quarter results show an industry that is adapting to a difficult global trading environment,” Kotzé stated. “Exporters are finding new markets even as traditional destinations become more challenging, but those gains will only hold if we resolve the constraints within our control, particularly FMD, port and rail performance, and phytosanitary market access.”
Charmaine ka Makhaya, a researcher for AgriSA and Agbiz, emphasized the strategic pivot. “While established markets provide relative stability for South Africa’s agricultural exports, emerging opportunities in Asia and the Middle East highlight the importance of market diversification and export expansion,” she noted.
| Trade Metric | Q2 Value | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total Agricultural Exports | $4.12 billion | +9.1% |
| Total Agricultural Imports | $1.98 billion | +6.4% |
| Agricultural Trade Surplus | — | +11.6% |
| Exports to the United States | — | -28% |
| Exports to Vietnam | — | +153% |
| Exports to Saudi Arabia | — | +90% |
| Exports to China | — | +30% |
